A great chance to trade the AUD

A great chance to trade the AUD

Diperbarui • 2019-11-11

On September 4 (7:30 MT time), the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the interest rate. The market doesn’t anticipate any changes in the interest rate, however, the speech of the central bank will move the market a lot. Let’s have a look at the current economic situation to forecast how the central bank will behave.

The environment of trade wars and not very strong economy don’t let the central bank raise the interest rate yet. The RBA is sure that the weak AUD helps the economy to develop.

Previously, the market anticipated the rate hike in 2019 but recent news pulled expectations down. Westpac Banking Corp. raised the mortgage rate last week. Suncorp and Adelaide bank have raised borrowing costs as well. The market is waiting whether three other big banks will follow. And the possibility is high.

The last house prices data kept falling for the eleventh straight month. The action of the banks will definitely affect the already falling house prices in Sydney and Melbourne. Moreover, the further decline is anticipated as the peak selling season starts.

The possibility of the economic data’s worsening made traders think that the Reserve bank may prolong the period of the stable rate to 2020. In times of the global rate hike, the stable Australian interest rate will affect the AUD even more.

So what can we expect from the RBA meeting on September 4? Risks that the RBA sounds dovish are increasing significantly. If the Reserve bank sounds cautious taking into consideration falling house prices and escalating trade wars tensions, the AUD will fall. However, some experts still hope that recent news won’t affect the central bank’s view and it may stand for the rate hike in 2019. If the RBA sounds hawkish still singling the rate hike in 2019, the Australian dollar will rise.

What about real levels?

Up to now, AUD/USD has been trying to recover. If the RBA is hawkish, AUD/USD will break above the pivot point at 0.7242. The next resistance is at 0.73. If the central bank is not encouraging, the pair will go to the support at 0.7121. In case of the fall, risks of the further plunge will strongly increase. The next support is at 0.7055. Moreover, the 50-week MA is near to cross 100-day MA upside down, that is a negative signal for the weekly move.

 AUDUSDDaily.png

Making a conclusion, we can say that there are high risks that the RBA will be neutral/dovish this time as the economic data put pressure on the RBA decision. In this case, the AUD will fall. Otherwise, if the RBA doesn’t consider the rise of the mortgage rate as negative, and keeps signaling the rate hike in 2019, the AUD will be able to appreciate.

                                                                                                 TRADE NOW

Menyerupai

Mengapa reli minyak dalam bahaya?
Mengapa reli minyak dalam bahaya?

Ya, harga minyak sedang tinggi saat ini, dan akibatnya, inflasi di seluruh dunia semakin panas. Namun, momentum bullish minyak berada dalam bahaya.

Berita terbaru

Sanggupkan Emas Berlama-lama di Puncak?
Sanggupkan Emas Berlama-lama di Puncak?

XAUUSD naik ke rekor tertinggi baru pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), di tengah meningkatnya spekulasi penurunan suku bunga..melanjutkan kenaikan kuat minggu lalu hingga membentuk level puncak baru sepanjang masa

Sebagian Pasar Masih Libur, Yen Stabil di Bawah 152
Sebagian Pasar Masih Libur, Yen Stabil di Bawah 152

Pasar saham Asia sebagian masih libur dan sebagian lagi menguat pada perdagangan Senin (01/04/2024), karena optimisme data pabrikan Tiongkok mendukung..potensi intervensi otoritas Jepang terhadap yen Jepang diperkirakan berada di zona 152 – 155 yen. 

Deposit dengan sistem pembayaran bank lokal DI INDONESIA

Pemberitahuan pengumpulan data

FBS menyimpan catatan data Anda untuk menjalankan website ini. Dengan menekan tombol "Setuju", Anda menyetujui kebijakan Privasi kami.

Ditelepon kembali

 1
 93
 355
 213
 1684
 376
 244
 1264
 672
 1268
 54
 374
 297
 61
 43
 994
 1242
 973
 880
 1246
 375
 32
 501
 229
 1441
 975
 591
 387
 267
 55
 246
 673
 359
 226
 257
 855
 237
 1
 238
 1345
 236
 235
 56
 86
 61
 61
 57
 269
 242
 243
 682
 506
 225
 385
 53
 357
 420
 45
 253
 1767
 1809
 593
 20
 503
 240
 291
 372
 251
 500
 298
 679
 358
 33
 594
 689
 241
 220
 995
 49
 233
 350
 30
 299
 1473
 590
 1671
 502
 224
 245
 592
 509
 39
 504
 852
 36
 354
 91
 62
 98
 964
 353
 44
 972
 39
 1876
 81
 962
 7
 254
 686
 850
 82
 965
 996
 856
 371
 961
 266
 231
 218
 423
 370
 352
 853
 389
 261
 265
 60
 960
 223
 356
 692
 596
 222
 230
 262
 52
 691
 373
 377
 976
 382
 1664
 212
 258
 95
 264
 674
 977
 31
 599
 687
 64
 505
 227
 234
 683
 672
 1670
 47
 968
 92
 680
 970
 507
 675
 595
 51
 63
 64
 48
 351
 1787
 974
 262
 40
 7
 250
 590
 290
 1869
 1758
 590
 508
 1784
 685
 378
 239
 966
 221
 381
 248
 232
 65
 421
 386
 677
 252
 27
 500
 34
 94
 249
 597
 268
 46
 41
 963
 886
 992
 255
 66
 670
 228
 690
 676
 1868
 216
 90
 993
 1649
 688
 256
 380
 971
 44
 1
 1
 598
 998
 678
 58
 84
 1284
 1
 681
 2
 967
 260
 263
00:00
00:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
23:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00

Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda

Merubah nomor

Permintaan Anda diterima.

Manajer kami akan menghubungi Anda

Permintaan panggilan balik berikutnya untuk nomor telepon ini
akan tersedia setelah

Jika Anda memiliki masalah mendesak, silakan hubungi kami melalui
Live chat

Internal error. Silahkan coba lagi

Jangan buang waktu Anda – tetap awasi dampak NFP terhadap dolar dan raup profitnya!

Anda menggunakan versi browser lama Anda.

Perbarui ke versi terbaru atau coba yang lain untuk pengalaman trading yang lebih aman, lebih nyaman dan produktif.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera