GBP/USD: outlook for March 27-31

The British pound soared to 1.2530 mainly on the upbeat economic releases coming from the UK. CPI figures pushed up through the Bank of England’s 2% target. UK monthly retail sales posted a stronger-than-expected growth of 1.4% having broken a weakening trend which was present in the past two months.

Next week on March 29 the UK PM Theresa May will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty and start lengthy negotiation over Britain’s departure from the EU. As most of the negative news and Brexit uncertainty is already reflected in the price, we don’t expect massive troughs from the pound. Another market trigger will probably be Trump’s fiscal policies. On the data front, traders will closely watch US consumer confidence indicator, final GDP, and unemployment claims. UK current account data and final GDP figures will be released on Friday.

Technically, the bullish phase that has started on Monday is still intact. The next physical hurdles can be found at 1.2570 (February 24 high) and 1.2620 (trendline from December high). But the numerous fundamental factors that we’ve previously identified will probably not allow the pound to hit these levels. As we approach towards the official launch of the Brexit negotiations GBP/USD will probably slide towards the supports at 1.2420 (100-day MA), 1.2377 (200-H4 MA) and 1.2105 (March low).