2020-05-25 • Updated
The Australian dollar set a strong upward trend over a month. Will AUD loose its gains soon?
The Australian dollar gained last week on the news about the potential effective vaccine and the prospect of an upcoming recovery as economies were reopening. However, there won’t be any important economic reports from Australia this week. That’s why, all the movements of the Australian dollar will depend mostly on risk sentiment.
The number-one trending topic these days is the US-China relationship. There had been already tensions between two world-largest economies, but they were worsened even more by China’s plans to impose a security law in Hong Kong. Most Western countries are against this law as it violates human rights.
Moreover, Australian Prime Minister claimed his support for Hong Kong’s autonomy that deteriorated the Australian relationship with China, as well. AUD was already under pressure by US-China tensions, but now it can have a direct conflict with China. It may turn out really badly for the aussie as China has been its main trading partner. Also, China has already banned imports of meat from Australia and imposed some extra tariffs. AUD will be under huge threat, if China continues its sanctions.
All eyes on the US-China phase-1 trade deal now. As any fresh impulse can have a huge negative impact on the Australian dollar.
The AUD/USD had been rising since March 20. Nevertheless, it started contracting on May 21. It looks like a regular correction, but buyers are worried as the fundamental outlook is quite bearish. If it manages to break through the support level at 0.649, it will go even deeper to 0.64. Retracement levels are at 0.660 and 0.666.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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