Earnings season is a crucial time for investors and analysts, as it provides insights into how well companies have performed over the past quarter and gives indications of their future earnings. In 2023, expectations for US Q1 earnings were low due to economic challenges and rising interest rates. Surprisingly, many companies beat these low expectations, with 75% of S&P 500 companies surpassing forecasts.
AUD: going pre-crisis
2020-06-03 • Updated
This week, the AUD has been one of the strongest currencies on the Forex market. Currently, it is at pre-crisis levels against the JPY and the USD. Trading this high, it is testing the long-term downtrends at 0.7000 for the AUD/USD and 76.00 for the AUD/JPY. The question is, even if it does break it, what are the odds that it keeps going upwards?
The main driver for the advance of the AUD is the good management of the virus in Australia, which had minimal direct impact compared to other countries. After that, there is a timing factor: tied to China, the Australian economy was the first one to start the recovery while the rest of the world is still shrugging off the dust of devastation. As the Chinese economy is strong and quick to get back to full capacity, the AUD has that as guaranteed support for the upside. However, such a scenario when the AUD is winning over the rest of the world will not stay long: once other economies, primarily the US, are back to capacity, the balance will get back to pre-crisis status quo where the AUD is a weak link. That means, several months ahead, possibly until the US election is finished, the AUD may enjoy the weakness of the USD. But in the long-term, closer to the very end of 2020, the USD will reassert itself as the Forex central pillar, and the fundamentals will be settled down. Then the AUD will again be under pressure.
When I started trading stocks a few years ago, I often needed to pay more attention to my technical analysis skills and trust that the market would play fair according to my analysis. I have since discovered that the safer approach to trading stocks is to, more often than not, seek out investing opportunities - that is, catching stock commodities with a potential to rise.
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