AUD: jobs report pushed it down

AUD: jobs report pushed it down

2020-05-14 • Updated

AUD has a pause on the way up as 600,000 people lost jobs. Is it a short-term correction or change of a course?

Devastating unemployment rise

"A very tough day, terribly shocking, although not unanticipated", - said Scott Morrison, the Australian Prime Minister. These days it’s really hard to surprise someone with a weak economic data. We already got used to it. However, it weighed some pressure on AUD, but it wasn’t the only one reason that pushed it down.

Powell’s negative prognosis

Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, gave a quite pessimistic outlook. He claimed that there is a high risk of the future deep downturn. Most economists and even Donald Trump discussed the positive impact of negative rates on economic activity. Nevertheless, Powell was unmoved, he rejected that possibility. This negative perspective pushed USD up and AUD down. The Australian dollar is really sensitive to all the market fluctuations.

Risk-off market

Those reasons were enough for the market-sensitive AUD to fall, but the overall risk-averse and fears of the second coronavirus wave destroyed the poor aussie completely. AUD, NZD, CAD, GBP, stock indexes such as S&P 500 and Dow Jones – all together are suffering. Things can improve only when the market will switch to the risk-on sentiment.

What does the chart tell us?

The AUD/USD had been increasing since March 23 and it almost bounced back to its pre-crisis position. The price hit the 100-day moving average twice at 0.655.  If it dips down to 0.633, what is quite possible, it may go even lower to the support line at 0.627 where is the 50-day moving average. Most analysts have bearish scenarios for the aussie. However, if it gains and crosses the resistance level at 0.649, it will go further up to 0.655.




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