On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets.
AUD/JPY may fall further
2020-02-26 • Updated
AUD/JPY is in the downtrend since the start of the year. It was capped on the upside by all the three important moving averages on the D1 (200, 100, and 50 SMA). This week the pair broke below the February support line in the 73.40 area. Its attempts to get higher have failed, as sellers are quite active. The threat of the coronavirus is the biggest bearish driver for the AUD. The odds are that its impact will continue. At the moment of writing, the pair is testing support at 72.50 (February low, 61.8% Fibonacci of the 2019 advance). The break below this level will open the way down to 71.75 (October lows) and 71.35 (78.6% Fibo). Resistance lies at 73.25 and 73.80.
Trade idea for AUD/JPY
SELL 72.30; TP1 71.75; TP2 71.35; SL 72.55
Later today Tiff Macklem, the governor of the BoC (Bank of Canada) is expected to speak at the Riksbank's International Symposium as part of a discussion panel on 'Central Bank Independence'.
The trend in the scenario above is clearly bearish. We have also had a recent break of structure at the marked horizontal arrows, which means we can expect price to react from the supply zone that broke the structure.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?