AUD: near-term risks

AUD: near-term risks

2020-11-26 • Updated

AUD/USD bounced off the monthly high as the risk-on sentiment faded. Australian private investments dropped more than expected, and also added pressure on the aussie. In addition, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has downgraded its near-term forecasts for the Australian dollar as they see the risk of a double-dip US recession. Indeed, the current picture is quite dire with constantly rising cases all over the world.

Besides, the AUD is positively correlated with the GBP, that’s why we should take into consideration the Brexit process as well. No good news from that side: there is only one month left to the deadline, and both sides seem to be far away from reaching a compromise.

On the other hand, the aussie is a risk-sensitive currency. When something happens in the market, it’s one of the first ones to react. If widespread vaccinations really start next month, we’ll see the rise of riskier assets, and especially, the AUD.

Forecasts from CBA

“While there are downside risks to AUD in the near term, the medium-term outlook is very positive because of China’s V-shaped economic recovery. We now forecast AUD/USD will end 2020 at 0.74 (previously 0.75) and end 2021 at 0.78 (unchanged). 

An improved outlook for the global economy is behind our slightly stronger AUD forecasts in 2022."   

Technical tips 

Actually, the performance of the AUD has been astonishing so far. On the weekly chart, we see loads more green candles than red ones, which means there are a lot of bulls on the market that are ready to push the price higher. On the other hand, we see that AUD/USD has approached the key resistance of 0.7400. So, it’s unlikely to break this strong level as it has failed to cross it so far. That’s why we may observe a pullback soon.


Now, let’s look at the daily chart to have a better view. If the price bounces off 0.7400 and falls, it will meet the support of 0.7260. The move below it will drive the pair to the low of November 12 at 0.7210. In the opposite scenario, if the price finally manages to move above 0.7400, it may rise further to the next round number of 0.7500. Follow further news and catch the market flow!




Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices
Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices

Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...

WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

Latest news

USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates
USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...

WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April
WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April

Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.


A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera