2019-11-11 • Updated
Aussie jumped to 0.7595 in the past week due to strong data out of Australia and Asia. The main focus was on the Thursday’s labor data from Australia that beat market expectation. China’s trade balance data showed a significant surplus exceeding the consensus forecast. Trump’s political decisions and public engagements weighed in on the US dollar and helped Aussie to receive substantial gains.
Next week the main focus will on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting minutes coming on Tuesday, and on the package of the US housing and manufacturing data. The meeting minutes will likely be a headwind for Aussie, as RBA policymakers removed any risk of higher interest rate over this year at their last meeting. On Thursday, pay closer attention to what US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will say about upcoming fiscal policies and border-adjustment tax. On Friday, traders will be focused on the FOMC member Kashkari’s speech striving to receive some reassurance in the Fed’s hikes and stronger USD.
Technically, the recent sharp rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7620 (near 50-day MA). A failure to test this level can lead to the rollback towards the nearest supports at 0.7550 and 0.7520 levels.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
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As the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) take center stage, this month's data gains special attention, particularly after the unemployment rate took a concerning turn in the previous month. The US ADP Employment Change reveals a significant decline, with the economy adding 298K new jobs...
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