AUD/USD: outlook for April 17-21

AUD/USD: outlook for April 17-21

Aussie jumped to 0.7595 in the past week due to strong data out of Australia and Asia. The main focus was on the Thursday’s labor data from Australia that beat market expectation. China’s trade balance data showed a significant surplus exceeding the consensus forecast. Trump’s political decisions and public engagements weighed in on the US dollar and helped Aussie to receive substantial gains.

Next week the main focus will on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy meeting minutes coming on Tuesday, and on the package of the US housing and manufacturing data. The meeting minutes will likely be a headwind for Aussie, as RBA policymakers removed any risk of higher interest rate over this year at their last meeting. On Thursday, pay closer attention to what US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will say about upcoming fiscal policies and border-adjustment tax. On Friday, traders will be focused on the FOMC member Kashkari’s speech striving to receive some reassurance in the Fed’s hikes and stronger USD.

Technically, the recent sharp rebound has scope to extend higher towards 0.7620 (near 50-day MA). A failure to test this level can lead to the rollback towards the nearest supports at 0.7550 and 0.7520 levels.  

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