After the bullish start of the year, the rand has started to weaken since the last Thursday. Let’s point out the main factors affecting the ZAR and set the key levels for this week’s trading.
AUD/USD outlook for May 1-5
Aussie declined from 0.7585 to 0.7440 in the course of the past week following the disappointing outcome for CPI figures. Annual core inflation data accelerated to just below the lower end of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s target underscoring its decision not to change its current loose monetary policy.
Next week, the RBA is set to deliver its rate and monetary policy statements on Tuesday and Friday accordingly. The bank’s policymakers are expected to stay on hold fearing that additional cuts could further inflame east coast house prices. Another concern of the bank’s officials is a pronounced slack of Australia’s labor market. Keep an eye on China’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI releases coming this Sunday. Disappointing updates might hurt the Aussie. The US dollar will have a very busy calendar next week with Fed’s rate announcement on Wednesday and US labor market report on Friday.
The Aussie was trading rangebound in the last two days consolidating after the sharp fall that started on Monday. While oversold, it might slide lower towards 0.7440 (April 27 low), or towards the solid support at 0.7400. If upper border of 0.7438 – 0.7490 consolidation range is broken, the quotes will rise higher towards 0.7515, 0.7550 levels.
If we look at the daily charts of the US dollar index and the USD/JPY pair, we will see a misleading trend.
Britain has to leave the European Union in 66 days. Will it leave with a trade deal (good for the GBP) or without one (bad for the GBP)?
The last "Pennant" pattern has been broken, so bulls found resistance at 1.2915. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to move on, so we should...
USD/CHF remains weak across the board and stays strong with a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA at H1 chart…
There's no any reversal pattern so far, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area in the short term...