AUD/USD: weekly outlook for July 3-7

Aussie climbed above 0.7680 in the past week as iron ore, copper prices rallied and Chinese manufacturing data beat forecasts.

There is a Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting next Tuesday. Most strategists believe that the board will adopt a more hawkish stance and leave unchanged its monetary policy settings. The RBA has been neutral all this time but with the shift in tone from other central banks and more signs of improvement for the Australian economy, it will likely release a hawkish statement. Datawise, pay attention to the Australian retail sales report coming ahead of the RBA’s meeting and Thursday’s trade balance data. The US al agencies are set to release unemployment, claims, jobless rate, average hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls next week. A special focus will be on the FOMC meeting minutes which should provide us with the detailed record of the board’s last meeting and offer in-depth insight into the policymakers’ views on the health of the US economy.

AUD/USD surged above 0.7710 over the last 5 days, then retreated a few pips and stalled at 0.7685/80. The possibilities of some profits taking at this point could be one of the factors dragging the pair back below 0.7575, 0.7555 and 0.7495 levels. If quotes manage to retest the 0.7700/0.7710 levels, there will be a continuation of the rally towards 0.7750 (year-to-date high).

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Anastasia Mileshkina