2020-11-19 • Actualizada
In the mid-term, AUD/USD has been oscillating around 0.73 in the channel between 0.7340 and 0.7220.
In the long-term, AUD/USD is at the highest level range it’s been at for the last two years, but the way to those levels has been full of battles – as it still is.
In the very long-term, 0.74 opens the way to the Fall-2017 highs of 0.81. After that, there is the entire mountain of the heights gradually left as the years were going by since the crisis of 2010.
Now, what is it going to be? Tactics make a strategy. And the tactical view suggests the following.
First, Victoria’s lockdown is lifted. In an immediate response to that, the October employment in Australia soared. The AUD saw that and got happy with it.
Second, the Reserve Bank of Australia injected more quantitative easing and made the bank lending facility rate 0.1%. That also provided more optimist to the Australian dollar in the long-run, even with it’s local depreciation at times, and drove it upwards.
On the other side, there is China. No, not that China that saw president Xi Jinping pay a prestigious visit to Australia and signed free-trade agreement later on. But China that sees Australia as largely a cold-war-mentality state that led the relationship between the two countries into the current stalemate. On this front, things don’t appear as optimistic as they do on the domestic front in Australia. Therefore, we have to factor in a heavy upside resistance before projecting further gains of AUD/USD in the mid-term.
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 39600... Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 39750... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Compras intradía sobre 39150
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 18100 con TP1:17900, TP2:17814 y 17630 // Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 18130 con TP: 18219, TP2: 18270 y TP3: 18428
Escenario Alcista: Compras sobre 17910 con TP:18098.07, TP2:18277 y TP3: 18415 Escenario Bajista: Ventas por debajo de 17850 con TP1:17730, TP2: 17700
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 1.0820 / 1.0841... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 1.0827...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 2200 / 2194... Escenario alcista más próximo: Compras sobre 2197... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Considera compras en torno a cada zona de demanda...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 5220 ... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 5225 (Si el precio falla en romper por debajo con decisión)
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