AUD/USD: pointing to the upside?

AUD/USD: pointing to the upside?

2020-11-19 • Updated

In the mid-term, AUD/USD has been oscillating around 0.73 in the channel between 0.7340 and 0.7220.

AUDUSDH4.png

In the long-term, AUD/USD is at the highest level range it’s been at for the last two years, but the way to those levels has been full of battles – as it still is.

AUDUSDWeekly.png

In the very long-term, 0.74 opens the way to the Fall-2017 highs of 0.81. After that, there is the entire mountain of the heights gradually left as the years were going by since the crisis of 2010.

AUDUSDMonthly.png

Now, what is it going to be? Tactics make a strategy. And the tactical view suggests the following.

First, Victoria’s lockdown is lifted. In an immediate response to that, the October employment in Australia soared. The AUD saw that and got happy with it.

Second, the Reserve Bank of Australia injected more quantitative easing and made the bank lending facility rate 0.1%. That also provided more optimist to the Australian dollar in the long-run, even with it’s local depreciation at times, and drove it upwards.

On the other side, there is China. No, not that China that saw president Xi Jinping pay a prestigious visit to Australia and signed free-trade agreement later on. But China that sees Australia as largely a cold-war-mentality state that led the relationship between the two countries into the current stalemate. On this front, things don’t appear as optimistic as they do on the domestic front in Australia. Therefore, we have to factor in a heavy upside resistance before projecting further gains of AUD/USD in the mid-term.

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