The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US increased to 3.2% year-over-year in February from 3.1% in January. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.8% year-over-year, slightly below January's 3.9% but above market expectations of 3.7%. Both the CPI and Core CPI also rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis.
Banks became increasingly bullish on EUR/USD in the near term
2019-11-11 • Updated
Forex analysts jointly expect the euro to extend its gains over the medium term.
NAB
NAB strategists expect the ECB policymakers to change their ultra-dovish rhetoric to a more hawkish one at the upcoming meeting in June. The bank’s officials might remove the word “or lower” from their current pledge “to keep rate unchanged or lower for an extended period of time”. They also project the ECB flagging a gradual reduction of its asset purchases in October-December and finally tapering it some day in 2018.
EUR/USD will likely be trading somewhere at 1.1000 in June 2017, around 1.1100 in September and near 1.13 by end December.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Bank’s FX Strategy Researchers upgraded their EUR forecasts this week. They note that the ECB will probably start focusing on QE taper in the longer term once its current program expires in December.
The debate is expected to start at the next meeting in June. The decision will probably be announced in September. The talk of QE tapering should support the single currency.
The bank’s strategists advise to buy any dips in EUR/JPY keeping in mind that the Bank of Japan is still committed to its yield targeting regime (until Japan’s inflation rate hits 2% target). Buying EUR/USD is not a really good idea as the USD is also expected to rise this year amid numerous Fed’s hikes and tax reforms. So, being long on EUR/JPY is a better choice.
ING
ING Strategists suggest buying EUR/USD in the near term. They expect Eurozone preliminary GDP growth figures picking up to 0.5% + positive rhetoric from policymakers (concerning gradual taper of the QE program). In addition, ING strategists note that the EZ inflation expectations taken from the 5Y5Y inflation swap are starting to edge up.
In the course of this week, EUR/USD will be searching for any excuse to rally above 1.1000 towards 1.1050/1.1060 area.
Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered investment bank has also turned positive on the EUR as the ECB is up to scale back its stimulus any time soon which in turn might lead to rising of the Bund yields. This will result in the narrowing of yield differentials in favour of the euro. Also, the bank draws its attention to the diminishing political risks associated with the second round of the French presidential election. Centrist candidate Macron is still having a strong lead over Eurosceptic Le Pen.
Credit Suisse, Nomura, JP Morgan echo a similar trade seeking to benefit from the euro appreciation.
Similar
The USD Index (DXY) dipped below the 103.00 support level for the first time since early February, indicating a significant decline in the US dollar. The focus on March 8 will be on the release of Non-farm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, and a speech by the Fed’s J. Williams. EUR/USD reached new multi-week highs near 1.0950 after the ECB decided to maintain...
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis of EURUSD, ERGBP and EURCAD
Latest news
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely anticipated to maintain its current interest rates at 4.35% following its two-day meeting concluding on Tuesday. Despite holding rates steady since December, the RBA has hinted at the possibility of further rate hikes due to persistently high inflation, which has exceeded its target range of 2% to 3%.
Coinbase (#COIN) saw its revenue rise to $773 million in Q1 2024, marking a 23% increase from the previous quarter and surpassing analyst expectations.
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...