Banks forecast gold may surge above $2 000

What happened?

The yellow metal tries to reverse from yesterday’s huge losses, caused by Trump’s tweets. The US president canceled talks between Democrats and Republicans over the fiscal stimulus package, whereas the deal was one step away from reaching. That was really shocking, and as a result, the safe-haven US dollar skyrocketed, which in turn pushed gold to the downside.

After that, Trump was hugely criticized for this by many US politicians, worsening his already weak position. According to US polls, Joe Biden has a lead of 8 percentage points over Donald Trump: 51% vs 43%. That’s why the current president reiterated that Congress will fund small businesses and airlines, and also unveil $1 200 stimulus checks to Americans. Actually, it worked, and the market sentiment has improved, weighing on the greenback, which boosted gold.

What is the forecast?

Saxo Bank has a positive outlook for gold because of the upcoming presidential elections on November 3. In the case of Biden’s victory, investors will await a policy shift, which will create uncertainty on the market, and as a result, capital may flow to gold.

Citibank announced the bullish short- and medium-term forecasts for gold. The bank set the 3-month price target at $2 200 and the 6-to-12-month target at $2 400.

According to Heraeus Precious Metals: “however, the pandemic is far from over, and if the economic outlook worsens, central banks could increase their monetary interventions yet again”.

Technical tips

Forecasts may seem one-sided for you, but there is hardly any bearish forecast for gold in the medium term. Although gold is trading sideways currently, its long-term trend is bullish. As you may know, gold tends to stick to the long-term trend.

After yesterday’s huge slump, gold has turned to the upside. The move above the key resistance of $1 900 will drive the yellow metal to Monday’s high of $1 920. On the flip side, if it drops below yesterday’s low of $1 875, the way towards September’s dips at $1 850 will be open.

Follow Fed’s meeting minutes this evening as they will add fresh volatility to XAU/USD.

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Kseniya Medik