2022-06-24 • Updated
EUR/USD fell to 1.0756, its lowest level since May 2020, as the European Central Bank's accommodative tone on monetary policy added more pressure to the euro. Where's the next stop?
The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected and confirmed that it would end the bond-buying program in the third quarter. President Christine Lagarde said it is "too early" to discuss policy tightening and added that a rate hike could come "at some point" after the end of the asset purchase program (APP). The statement assured the ongoing dovish policies for several reasons:
The ECB is sticking to policy easing, that's why EUR is under downward pressure, and there could be more downside in the near term. The USD, on the contrary, regained strength from the Fed's hawkish comments.
Unlike the Fed, which is expected to raise rates by 50 points in the May meeting and by 25 points at each of the remaining five meetings during 2022, ECB is in no rush to raise rates. The Fed bought the last of its bonds in March and increased rates in the same month. But at the ECB, it will take some time. The first-rate hike in the Eurozone may come in September.
Why will the euro continue to decline?
What is the next move for EUR/USD?
After EUR dropped below 1.0800 for the first time in April 2020, the chart shows that the bearish condition remains intact. If EUR/USD continues to fall below 1.0800 (the psychological level, lowest level in two years), the technical selling pressure may increase and pull the pair towards 1.0770, 1.0760, and 1.0730. The next big downside target is 1.0635, the lowest price since March 2020.
The near-term view is also bearish, with the pair holding below bearish moving averages.
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