Bitcoin (BTC/USD): is it time for further weakness?

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): is it time for further weakness?

2019-11-11 • Updated

It was not a good week for the Bitcoin bulls, where once again the price was consolidated below the 9000 barrier, thus moving away from the important psychological level of 10000. This in a technical context where bears are being favored by some moving averages that continue pointing downward and a MACD indicator that remains strong in negative territory.

In fundamental terms, South Korean prosecutors raided the offices of Upbit, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the world, which damaged investor confidence in crypto space. Keep in mind that in the coming days there will be several conferences and events related to cryptocurrency in New York.

The Parabolic SAR is beginning to show some bullish signals that suggest an imminent rebound in the short term. However, it should be noted that the 50-hour moving average continues to exert downward pressure, although the RSI indicator is moving in the oversold area, which would be a sign that there could be some rebound in the BTC.

What do we expect?

According to our forecasts in the short-term, Bitcoin is doubling a cycle started on May 5 and which ended on May 9, suggesting additional weakness. Therefore, we project the BTC/USD pair will fall to the level of 8241, where the Fibonacci extension of 100% is located. However, if that area comes to yield, the fall would extend to the 7997 level.



Worst Awaits Risk Assets in September
Worst Awaits Risk Assets in September

The Crypto market usually also has a rough time in September. Bitcoin lost 12.7% in September 2021, 17.4% in 2020, 17.5% in 2018, 21.4% in 2017 and 45.4% in 2015. The main cryptocurrency increased by 13.3% and 3.95% in 2016 and 2019, respectively.

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