2020-05-07 • Updated
USD/BRL jumped before the announcement of the Central Bank of Brazil. What was the reason?
On April 6 the rating agency Fitch decreased the Brazil’s credit rating to negative. The Central Bank of Brazil cut interest rates by 75 basis points, while economists anticipated only 50. Moreover, the Brazil’s monetary policy committee intends to repeat that cut in June. The Brazilian real slumped by 1.8%.
Brazil interest rate
Reasons of its poor performance are the political uncertainty, the global recession amid the coronavirus pandemic, risk aversion and, also, the strong US dollar. Brazil has been damaged by the coronavirus much more than other countries in Latin America. Brazil is headed towards unseen low rates. The economy has never been in such an environment before.
Let’s look at the USD/BRL chart. The main trend is upward. Now the price is near the recent intraday record high at the 5.75 mark. Let’s see if it breaks through it and moves up further or goes down to the support line on 5.33. The next support is on 5.00. However, with the firmer US dollar the prognosis for the Brazil real is disappointing.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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