Brent: OPEC+ Might Intervene

Brent: OPEC+ Might Intervene

2021-10-29 • Updated

What will happen?

Brent's price fell after a less than expected oil crude inventories report. Usually, the less expected report pushes the price higher, but this time everything went the opposite way.

It might be the signal of investors’ growing concerns about the OPEC+ upcoming conference, where oil global supply might be increased. Earlier, the CEO of Saudi Aramco called for a supply increase, since global oil inventories decrease too fast.  From his point of view, if OPEC+ will not change its policy, it might lead to the continuation of the global energy crisis. In this case, XBR/USD will explode and reach $100 shortly. 

Technical analysis

4H chart

XBRUSDH4.png

On the 4H chart, Brent fell under the 100-period moving average. At the moment it is consolidating between $81.7 and $83.3. Locally, it looks oversold according to the RSI, that’s why we can see a pullback up to $84.2 first. The main resistance will be the 50-period moving average, which has been holding the price since the middle of September 2021. If XBR/USD breaks through this resistance, it might rise as high as $85,6 again. Otherwise, if it gets rejected, it will be another proof of a downtrend beginning. The main targets for the down movement are $81.7 and $79.5.

Weekly chart

XBRUSDWeekly.png

On the weekly chart, the situation which happens in 2018 repeats. The price drew 3 highs with the RSI divergence just as it did in the previous time. Later, after that pattern appeared, the price has been falling for 7 weeks straight. OPEC+ conference on August 4 will answer the question: “can technical analysis predict the future?”

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Similar

Will oil drop to $60 or rise to $100 in 2022?
Will oil drop to $60 or rise to $100 in 2022?

Predicting oil prices is a difficult job at the best of times. Still, it is increasingly difficult as COVID-19 and its variants continue to suspend consumers' plans and disrupt the balance between oil demand and supply.

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