2020-08-21 • Updated
The British pound outperformed the euro and the US dollar after the better-than-expected PMI. However, Brexit deadlock pushed the GBP down.
Firstly, the British PMI exceeded all expectations. It turned out 55.3 for Manufacturing PMI and 60.1 for Services. Moreover, earlier the EU PMI came out worse than anticipated: Manufacturing PMI – 51.7 and Services PMI – 50.1 vs expected 52.7 and 54.6, respectively. Positive British and negative European economic indicators led to an enormous drop of EUR/GBP. However, things have changed after the EU and the UK couldn’t reach the agreement over some Brexit issues, especially fisheries and other irreconcilable differences. The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier claimed that “an agreement seems unlikely” and was “disappointed, concerned and surprised”. It seems that both sides are far away from reaching a deal. Therefore, it will definitely require more time to make a deal now.
The further prolongation of the Brexit deal will weigh more on the British pound. Weeks of uncertainties ahead may drive the GBP lower and lower. Negotiators set the next meeting for October 2. However, most analysts are questioning the possibility of a positive outcome. Perhaps the situation won’t get better without governments’ intervention, and it will take more time than it was initially expected.
EUR/GBP has just reversed from the support of 0.8950. Obviously, most analysts have bearish scenarios for the British pound after totally unsuccessful Brexit talks. If the pair jumps above the high of August 12 of 0.9000, it will rise to the next resistance of 0.9050. In the opposite scenario, if it falls down to 0.8950, the way to the next support of 0.8910 will be open. Follow further news on the GBP!
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Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
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Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
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