2020-06-16 • Updated
The British authorities confirmed that December 2020 is the final deadline and cannot be extended.
The UK PM spoke with the EU Commission President to mark the next steps of negotiations.
The EU and the UK chief Brexit negotiators meet in Brussels to (hopefully) agree on main lines including fisheries and level playing field.
Several rounds of discussions
The last round of talks in Brussels.
Individual EU member states are ratifying the agreement (which by now is supposedly finished).
End of the transition period.
Until recently, the talks were pretty much in a stalemate. There was virtually no progress, and both the UK and the EU had openly admitted that. Yesterday, however, Boris Johnson had a call with Ursula von der Leyen which is reported to give a fresh push to negotiation. No concrete points were achieved, though, so this call may be perceived as a “call of intention”.
The British PM Boris Johnson:
“I don’t think we are actually that far apart… we see no reason why you shouldn’t get that done in July”.
Spokesman of Michel Barnier, Chief EU negotiator:
“We won’t just speed up. We have to remain focused on content and consequences”.
Both sides are quite adamant they don’t want to give in inch in crucial sectors such as fisheries, the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, and the level playing field. That’s why, fundamentally, there is a stalemate. However, Boris Johnson’s camp is pressed by the deadlines to complete what was promised to his voters, while the EU doesn’t really care about time as it openly admits. Therefore, internal social and political pressure is harder on the British side that it is on the European. That’s why, while both parties have an equal commitment to observer their respective interests, the UK is in a weaker negotiation position.
Until Brexit is done, it will stay a “subversive” element in the GBP’s value against the EUR. Even if we remove the virus surge in March, the larger trend looks upwards since January 2020. It will likely stay so during the year while there no indication that both sides have come to a true agreement on their central demands. It is safe to expect EUR/GBP trade along and above the current resistance of 0.9050 until there is light in the tunnel for Brexit negotiations. As a thumb rule, whatever happens, including if nothing happens, the GBP will suffer more from an unsuccessful Brexit that the EUR.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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