2022-12-15 • Updated
Great Britain released retail sales data on May 20, 9:00 GMT+3. The reading outperformed expectations greatly (+1.4% actual vs. -0.3% forecast). Consumer spending is important for the economy as it is the main metric for understanding the market’s sentiment. Looking more broadly, in the three months to April 2022, sales volumes fell by 0.3% compared with the previous three months; this continues the downward trend since summer 2021.
It is unusual for Britain to see an increase in spending as the UK continues the tightening program, and the UK CPI is 9.0% (a 40-year high). The MPC forecasts that it will rise to double digits in the fourth quarter of this year. This is a very uncomfortable situation for a monetary policymaker targeted at achieving inflation of 2%.
Huw Pill, head of monetary analysis in BoE, expects inflation to return to the targets shortly after entering the double-digit zone.
As for the chart, high retail sales data is very bullish for the GBPUSD pair. We have an inversed head and shoulders pattern. On the breakout, GBPUSD is likely to reach 1.2700 over the next week. Look for the soar above 1.2500 before opening a trade.
GBPUSD H4 chart
Resistance: 1.2500, 1.2700, 1.3000
Support: 1.2340, 1.2170
The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its tenth consecutive rate hike since July 2022 and bringing the total increase to 450 basis points. The ECB is primarily concerned about high inflation levels, both current and projected, with concerns extending into the future.
The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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