CAD: bearish forecasts from TD Securities

CAD: bearish forecasts from TD Securities

2020-11-24 • Updated

What happened?

USD/CAD has been falling for a few reasons. First of all, the CAD is sensitive to market sentiment. Investors were encouraged by hopes of having the vaccine soon in the USA and some European countries, and that underpinned the risky CAD and therefore drove USD/CAD down. Second, the Canadian dollar is one of the largest oil producers that’s why its price movement is closely linked to the dynamic of oil prices. WTI oil surged to August highs pushing the CAD upwards too. 

Forecasts

TD Securities claimed that “the loonie trades with too much optimism relative to fundamentals and techncials" and assured that the current risk-on sentiment will soon fade and push the Canadian dollar down. According to TD Securities, USD/CAD will rally up to 1.3300 if it reaches 1.3100.

However, the long-term forecast is more supportive for the Canadian dollar. Goldman Sachs claimed that the reopening of the global economy in 2021 will drive riskier currencies up such as the CAD and the AUD. 

Technical tips

If USD/CAD jumps above the 50-period moving average, the way to the resistance of 1.3120 and then to the next one of 1.3165 will be clear. Elsewhere, the long lower tail of the second-to-last red candle and the following long green one have created the bullish momentum for the pair in the near term. In the opposite scenario, the move below the intraday low of 1.3030 will push the pair lower to the key psychological mark of 1.3000. 

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