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Can Bitcoin return to uptrend?
A lot has happened to Bitcoin since the start of 2018. The recent weeks haven’t been easy for the cryptocurrency: BTC/USD fell to $6,000 on February 6. Since then, some recovery took place. Yet, the highs of 2017 in the $20K area remain far away. Some people argue that Bitcoin will go “to the moon” (i.e. higher than we can imagine today), while others consider it a bubble and expect more declines. Who is right?
To begin with, Bitcoin’s selloff in January and February is not unusual. There were periods in 2012, 2013 and 2017 when the market fell by 30% and more during 1 or several days. The recent move simply looks more impressive because it was preceded by a spectacular advance.
Now some analysts say that after this healthy correction the market has become more mature and may attract more serious investors. JP Morgan said that cryptocurrencies may represent instruments to diversify portfolios from holding traditional stocks and bonds. Many new players may join the cryptocurrency market when the price makes pullbacks to the downside. In addition, there are so-called HODL investors – people who will hold Bitcoins no matter how low the price gets. Bitcoin futures have provided a way for Wall Street to trade this dynamic market.
Good things and bad things for Bitcoin
It’s clear that for a significant rebound in Bitcoin the market’s sentiment should improve. The majority of traders should believe that the negative factors affecting the price are only temporary.
We can say that the situation starts improving. The price remains influenced by regulatory activity in major trading markets and here there are some bright things.
South Korea, which has previously crashed BTC by considering a cryptocurrency ban, now says that it will focus on making cryptocurrency trading transparent and that it was never seriously planning to shut down crypto exchanges.
US regulators – SEC and CFTC – admitted the underlying value of cryptocurrencies. According to them, the basis for Bitcoin’s value is miners’ costs. The UK launched the not-for-profit and membership-driven organization to regulate cryptocurrency trading.
Big banks have indicated that they are interested in the cryptocurrency market. For example, Goldman Sachs is creating an interface for cryptocurrency trading. JP Morgan also considers integrating blockchain into its systems.
Yet, the environment for cryptocurrencies remains difficult. The problem is that, for now, it seems quite easy for big players and decision-makers to destabilize the market. The rapidly moving price attracts a lot of predators who practice different kinds of manipulations, for example, fake news. The infrastructure for trading is far from perfect. Hack attacks, thefts, and hidden mining happen quite often.
Bitcoin price forecasts
The main resistance level for BTC/USD is located at $12K. If it manages to rise above this level, the correction would be over and the price will get a chance to rise to $14-17K. The inability to break above $12,000 would be a longer period of sideways trading for cryptocurrencies.
Analysts at Bloomberg think that BCT should return down to $900 because it’s the average price level since the creation. This looks like a big decline given rather high demand, but given the extreme volatility of the market, this is far from impossible.
Yet, it looks more likely that Bitcoin is at the beginning rather than at an end. A lot of things have happened and there will be more: technological breakthroughs, changes in regulation and market sentiment. Bitcoin can actually face several more years of turbulence before the token stabilizes as a legitimate commodity.
There are a lot of predictions that BTC will rise to $20,000-$50,000 in 2018. Much depends on the success of the Lightning Network, a technological improvement that’s expected to unfold this year and make Bitcoin transactions faster and cheaper.
If we need to answer a question whether Bitcoin can resume uptrend, the answer is yes. To make sure that things go that way watch for news and important technical levels and remember that the one thing we can be 100% sure of is that there will be many more big swings on the way.
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