China’s exports hit record high

China’s exports hit record high

2020-12-07 • Updated

What happened?

China published the better-than-expected trade balance, signaling the country’s steady recovery. The trade surplus surged to 75.4 billion dollars, while the forecast was 53.8 billion dollars. It was the largest monthly increase in the whole history of China! The strong trade growth can be linked with the severe lockdowns in other parts of the world. These countries need a lot of equipment for medical staff and ordinary people, which is made where? Of course, in China.

Long-term risks

However, it isn’t so good as it seems. The widespread vaccinations will rotate the world’s demand for services as social-distancing restrictions will be canceled. As a result, the demand for China’s exports may be reduced. By the way, the Chinese yuan is showing the best performance against the US dollar since 2014. If it continues appreciating, one day China’s goods will be too expensive for overseas buyers. However, all these risks are log-long-term, and they may significantly impact the yuan only in the second half of the next year.

Short-term risks

The short-term risk is Sino-American tensions. Donald Trump’s administration is planning to impose sanctions on Chinese officials over the Hong Kong crackdown. According to Steptoe and Johnson, “it’s unlikely the Biden administration will roll back sanctions that are politically popular in Washington. Trump-era sanctions could become sticking points in the US-China relationship for years to come”.

Technical tips

USD/CNH is moving in a downtrend. However, the price is touching the lower trendline and the lower line of Bollinger Bands, we can assume that the pair has the potential to rise to the resistance of 6.5800. The move above this level will drive the price to the high of November 11 at 6.6250. Support levels are 6.5000 and 6.4500.

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