Crypto Market Bottom Forecast

Crypto Market Bottom Forecast

2022-06-23 • Updated

The lower Bitcoin goes, the more we hear about its end. Rumors about the death of the crypto market have been here for ten years and won’t end in the future. To stay judgment-free, we need to focus on the current state of the market and the economy, not on fear, uncertainty, and doubts (FUD).

Two Recent Months in Crypto

Since March 2022, Bitcoin has lost 61% of its capitalization. Increased volumes and sharp moves followed the plunge. Thus, we consider this a true movement because Bitcoin collected enormous amounts of money on its way down. Around $7.3 billion worth of crypto has been sold in the loss.

photo_2022-06-19_22-37-48.jpg

The same can be said about altcoins (all crypto except Bitcoin). The second-biggest crypto, Ethereum, lost 73% since the end of March. Despite the dump, here’s the good news. Transaction fees in the ETH network fell to the lowest in two years, only 0.3$ for a single transaction, and paved the way for retail traders who want to enter the DeFi world without thousands of dollars in their pockets.

People love explaining the reasons for the movement after it happened, and analysts are seeking “Black Swans” to crash the market. Lots of them expect Swans to spawn at least once a year. To stay ahead of the trends and be filled with useful information, visit the FBS analytics site, where news and reports are fast and unbiased.

In 2014 Bitcoin reached $170, a 86% decline from the last high, due to “more companies entering the market and increasing the circulating supply. In 2019 BTC touched the $3000 level, an 84% decline from the peak of 2017. The reason was the “Bubbly nature of crypto” (all the analysts were talking about it). 

This time, the central theme of the crash is stablecoins. After Terra (LUNA) crashed, another algorithmic stablecoin was in a danger zone. USDD, issued by Tron (TRX), lost its peg to the dollar. In case of further distancing of the USDD and the USD, Tron would need to sell their Bitcoin reserves. Thus, the price may experience more pressing.

Still, please notice that overall market conditions are not the main reason for crypto to fall. Bitcoin cycles are repeating themselves and haven’t been broken even once.

What we Expect from the Crypto Market

Understanding how crypto moves to forecast the future price direction is crucial. So-called “macrocycles” include Bitcoin halving, traders’ capitulation, and smart money. Considering there are 670 days till the next halving (and the next prolonged bullish rally), we will focus on traders’ capitulation.

2022-06-22_18-09-21.png

The graphic above is the NUPL, a metric that measures the network’s overall unrealized profit and loss. It indicates that “more than 19%% of the market cap is held in loss,” which “resembles a market structure equivalent to capitulation phases in previous bear markets.” Still, there is a chance to go lower due to unfavorable economic conditions.

To sum up, we expect a local bottom of the market by the end of the summer or in September 2022. Talking about the price is more complex, but we have a point. Most of the market expected the bottom to be around the $20K psychological area. That’s why we strongly agree on breaking this level and heading lower to the next support of $13.5K. A couple of months ahead of our projections, Bitcoin may surprise us as the capitulation phase has already begun (in the figure above).

Bitcoin Price Projections

In case of breaking the $13.5K level, the next support lies at the $9.3K line. Most of the crypto market will be destroyed entirely by that time as most altcoins will make a 99% downwards move. We think that the $9.3K area will be the ultimate bottom of the crypto market if the price reaches this zone.

{F1858C39-DD45-4BFC-A892-37C51DE83A23}.png.jpg

The only crypto worth looking at in addition to the BTC is ETH, the most popular DeFi-oriented cryptocurrency with fundamental reasons to rise and thrive. Consider trading other coins only as speculative assets until the next halving as they will be very fragile. Or you can practice your trading with a demo account designed for you to test every strategy and enter the actual game with skills and needed abilities!

Similar

Bulls Are Coming Back
Bulls Are Coming Back

The US dollar index rose to 105.40 after the Fed’s 75-basis-point key rate hike, while the stock and the crypto markets fell. However, during the past few days, investors and traders returned to risk assets as they expect inflation growth to slow. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, announced the Fed might start cutting the key rate by 2024, which is the most evident hint of an upcoming market reversal.

What to Trade on June 20-24?
What to Trade on June 20-24?

Last week was shocking!  The US dollar gained more than 2% against other currencies ahead of the 75-basis points rate hike by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday but dropped after the announcement…

Latest news

What to Trade on July 4-8
What to Trade on July 4-8

Last week was bearish for risky assets such as stocks, oil, gas, and crypto. Will the upcoming week change the situation across the markets? Let’s look at it in detail!

When Will the US Stocks Bear Market Bottom?
When Will the US Stocks Bear Market Bottom?

US stocks have delivered their worst first half of a year in more than 50 years triggered by the Fed's attempt to control inflation and growing concerns about recession.

The Dollar's Strength or Other Currencies' Weakness?
The Dollar's Strength or Other Currencies' Weakness?

The value of the US dollar continues to rise, but is this because of the strength of the dollar itself or just the weakness of the euro, Japanese yen, and British pound? Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has been up 8…

Deposit with your local payment systems

Be on top of your game

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera