Do not belittle G-20 summit

Some traders simply disregard the importance of such political assemblies as G-20 summits viewing them irrelevant for interpretation of market’s moves. In some degree, they are right, markets are not really responsive to the G-20/G-7-like meetings. But the upcoming event has some ginger due to its agenda, the leaders representing 20 leading economies and due to some sidelines meetings.

Angela Merkel will host leaders of the G20 leading economies on this Friday at a Hamburg summit. On the agenda of the meeting are the most contentious and sensitive issues such as free trade, climate change, and immigration. Merkel will try hard to deliver a strong and clear message on the importance of international trade against any protectionist actions. A failure to agree on a commitment to keep global trade free and open will have negative consequences for financial markets.

It also will be interesting to see how Trump will try to defend his staunchy protectionist claims against the barrage of criticism from the part of other leaders. Obviously, he cannot simply reject them all at once as they served him well as a candidate.

Traders should also pay special attention to the sideline meeting of President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. The leaders agreed to hold their first meeting during the G-20 summit. We will eager to know how much Mr. Trump is willing to confront the man whose meddling in the 2016 election may have helped him win. The encounter between the two heads will be held on the back of widening deferral investigation into possible collusion between Trump’s confidants and the Russian political entities, the investigation into Trump’s decision to dismiss former FBI director James Comey (potentially leading to Trump’s impeachment). The US President will have a chance to demonstrate (or not demonstrate) that he is not the Putin’s puppet as Hillary Clinton once called him. Not only American voters will closely watch the highlights of the meeting, but so will a special counsel appointed for the examination of whether Trump tried to impede Russian investigation or not.

Given the importance of these events in under present circumstances, we wait for some moves in the pairs containing the USD following the publication of the communique and play-by-play news from the G20 meeting.

Anastasia Mileshkina

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