EBAY stock: if not the virus...

Ebay stock offers a very interesting layout.

Since it reached its all-time high of $47 in December 2017, it never came back up before the virus. It was at around $40 per share in the middle of 2019, but that’s about it. In the meantime, the strategic support of $26 has been steadily lying down there throughout these years. For this reason, it is a very big question of how actually Ebay’s stock would perform if not the virus. Very possibly, trajectory 1 would something that we would see. But “if not the virus” doesn’t work anymore.

So now we have ebay trading at $58. Will it go higher? Probably, yes. There are all the reasons for it to make new gains. There will a retrace, of course, and an inevitable stabilization at a milder trajectory. Where will it be? The historical performance of this stock may give us some clues.

The last 10 years saw this stock move within a steady channel upwards. The first period (2009-2016) was a period of gradual growth in the lower band of the channel. The second period (2017-2019) saw this stock reach its mentioned all-time high at $47 and collapse to the area of $26, going through noticeably higher volatility. The third period – if there was no virus – would probably be the one where this stock would slide upwards again, coming back up to $47 in approximately a year or two.

However, as the virus came, it forced the stock upwards. Although it is natural that the demand for Ebay’s delivery service is higher in the times of social distancing, it appears that the stock is quite overvalued. That’s why, most likely, it will drop in the long-term perspective down to the same $47 to take a milder trajectory upwards as in scenario 4.

Tuesday, July 28, will bring us Q2 results from ebay – to be announced at 2200 MT time. Nothing extraordinary is expected apart from confident and positive results to give even firmer ground for this stock to rise… or not. We will see that in due course. Trade ebay.

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Gaspar Markosyan

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