2020-04-30 • Updated
On April 30 at 14:45 MT time the ECB will unveil its future measures to support the euro zone economy. The press conference will start at 15:30 MT time.
Rates will stay unchanged as the reduction would have little impact. All that remains is to buy extra assets, so called “junk” bonds through its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP). The ECB can remove the cap of its bond purchases or increase the present amount, which is 750 billion euro now. Also the bank can start buying bonds of fallen angels, companies who lost their investment grades during the corona crisis.
These decisions are the bone of contention between the Eurozone member states. On the one hand, it will help poorer states such as Greece, Italy, Spain to borrow money under more favorable conditions. On the other hand, it will be too risky for Germany and Netherlands as borrowers can fail to repay their debts.
Also the ECB can discuss the Targeted Longer Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), that provide banks with money to lend to customers. Governors can offer banks even more loans, and more cheaply.
If the ECB leaves everything unchanged, the EUR/USD will fall to 1.0765.
If the ECB decides to buy fallen angels and extend LTRO, it will push EUR/USD higher to 1.09.
If the ECB expands quantitative easing, EUR/USD will drop at first, but then stabilize.
If ECB increases the size of PEPP, EUR/USD will surge toward the key resistance near 1.10.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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