2020-08-19 • Updated
The most traded pair takes a breath after reaching levels unseen since May of 2018. It has been rallying for 7 days in a row and eventually broke through the significant resistance at 1.1900. It was a strong sign for most traders. However, profit-takers entered the market and pushed the pair slightly down. Nevertheless, bulls are still in game as the pair has crossed the main barrier. Thus, the way to the upside is clear.
The EUR/USD’s rally may be caused by the long-term weakness of the US dollar. The current risk-on sentiment decreased even more the demand for the safe-haven. Moreover, today the euro got a tailwind as the EU current account came out much better than analysts anticipated. This indicator shows a difference between imports and exports, plus all income flows during the previous month. It turned out 20.7 billion euros, while the forecast was only 7 billion. Besides, the EU core consumer price index was along with expectations: 1.2%.
All eyes on the FOMC meeting minutes today’s evening at 21:00 MT time. Most economists believe its dovish statement will drive the US dollar lower, and therefore EUR/USD higher. Otherwise, if the tone is hawkish, the US dollar will rise.
EUR/USD has been stuck in a range between 1.1900 and 1.1700 for almost a month. Today the pair has managed to break out this range. However, now it’s struggling to cross the next resistance at 1.1950. If it succeeds to break it out, the doors to 1.2000 will be open. In the opposite scenario, if it drops below the key psychological mark of 1.1900, it may dip down to the low of August 17 at 1.1835.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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