February ahead: coronavirus has not stepped back

February ahead: coronavirus has not stepped back

2020-02-03 • Updated

Last month was mostly driven by market sentiment. The beginning of January was highlighted by the geopolitical crisis between the US and Iran. After the markets calmed down, the coronavirus that appeared at the end of 2019 spread causing depreciation of the risky assets and appreciation of the refuge assets. Will this month be driven by economic releases or external factors?

The Australian dollar is under pressure

February 4, 5:30 MT time - Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement

February 6, 2:30 MT time - Retail Sales m/m, Trade Balance

February 7, 2:30 MT time - RBA Monetary Policy Statement

February 18, 2:30 MT time - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

February 20, 2:30 MT time - Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

AUDUSDWeekly.png

The AUD/USD pair has been suffering since the beginning of the year. Negative market sentiment was the most important driver of the pair. Currently, the coronavirus is the factor that will keep affecting the AUD. However, traders should keep looking at economic data.

Although the RBA is not expected to change the interest rate, markets anticipate the bank to be cautious. It may pull the currency down. Following economic releases may change the situation if the actual data outperform forecasts.

On the weekly chart, the pair has been trading at the lows of September 2019 of 0.6680. In the case of the breakthrough, the pair will target the next level at 0.6340. However, it’s far, so we expect the formation of additional lows. The RSI indicator and Stochastic oscillator are in the oversold area. As soon as the indicators signal the upward movement, the pair will move towards the range of 0.6877-0.6913, 0.70.

The New Zealand dollar may recover

February 4, 23:45 MT time - Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate

February 12 3:00 MT time - Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement

February 12 4:00 MT time - RBNZ Press Conference

February 24 23:45 MT time - Retail Sales q/q

NZDUSDWeekly.png

The US-Iran tensions and coronavirus had a negative impact on the NZD, too. The New Zealand dollar has been depreciating against the USD since the beginning of the year. The decline may continue if the effect of the virus extends. A pullback may happen if only the economic data signal economic improvement.

The RBNZ is expected to keep the rate on hold through 2020. Nevertheless, the mood of the bank will be important for the direction of the NZD. Economic figures will either prove or disprove the bank won’t change the rate. Encouraging figures will help the Kiwi to rise.  

On the weekly chart of NZD/USD, we see the pair has been moving to the support at 0.6428. The next supports are at 0.6325 and 0.6250. The Stochastic Oscillator is already in the oversold area, while the RSI has been moving to it. If the indicators give signals of the reversal, the pair will get a chance to move up. The first psychological resistance range of 0.6716-0.6761 is far. The pair will form resistances before it.

The British pound will be under the impact of Brexit

February 19 11:30 MT time - CPI y/y

February 21, 11:30 MT time - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI

GBPUSDWeekly.png

Last month, the GBP was supported by the Brexit deadline. Let us remind you the UK left the European Union on January 31. Although it’s not the end and the transition period will last until December 31, 2020, bringing more uncertainties, the GBP felt well.

In February, Brexit headlines are expected to be one of the key drivers of the currency as the risks of the longer transition period are high. Traders should take into consideration comments from both sides: Britain and Europe. If the investors see any clues on the raised uncertainties between parties, market sentiment will pull the British currency down.

Indicators of the economic environment will have a strong impact on the domestic currency. In its last meeting, the BOE warned of slow growth after Brexit. If the economic figures are bad, the GBP will slide.

On the weekly chart of GBP/USD, the pair has been trading in the consolidation zone of 1.2980-1.32. If the GBP weakens after the Brexit euphoria, we will see the fall to 1.2771, 1.2558. If the pound is boosted, the pair will break above the upper boundary of the zone, rising towards 1.3327, 1.3475, 1.3587.

Will the USD continue strengthening? 

February 7, 15:30 MT time - Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

February 13, 15:30 MT time - CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m

February 14, 15:30 MT time - Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m

February 19, 21:00 MT time - FOMC Meeting Minutes

The beginning of the year was positive for the US dollar. The currency managed to pull back from the lows of July 2019. Although the US dollar lost its status of the safe-haven asset, the risk-off sentiment encouraged the strengthening of the USD. Economic releases will affect the strength of the American currency as traders are waiting for any signals on the future monetary policy of the Fed. The Federal Reserve is forecast to keep the rate unchanged. Nonetheless, the decision may change if the economic data are too weak.

EURUSDWeekly.png

On the weekly chart of EUR/USD, the pair has been suffering since January due to the strength of the USD and the risk-off sentiment. EUR/USD rebounded from the support at 1.10. However, the rise was limited. If the pair breaks below 1.10, the next strong supports are at 1.0929 and 1.0871. Nevertheless, the price and Awesome Oscillator has formed a hidden bullish divergence. The pair may rise towards, 1.1172, 1.1331-1.1379.

The CAD is among the weakest currencies against the USD

February 7, 15:30 MT time - Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

February 19, 15:30 MT time - CPI m/m

February 28, 15:30 MT time - GDP m/m

USDCADWeekly.png

The Canadian dollar that strongly depends on the oil market suffered due to negative market sentiment. The USD/CAD pair has surged since the beginning of the year. The market data may help the CAD to recover, but the strength of the USD will be more important.

Currently, USD/CAD has been moving up to the psychological level of 1.3320. If the rebound doesn’t happen, the pair will increase to 1.3430, 1.3519, and 1.3635. In the case of the fall, previous resistances will become supports. Additional levels are at 1.3080, 1.2978, and 1.2877.

To conclude, the coronavirus will keep affecting markets during the month. If risks of the virus spread don’t decrease, risky assets will suffer more, while safe-haven one will be boosted. Economic releases will be important for currencies too. The effect won’t be long-term. Nevertheless, they may change the direction of the pairs at least for a while.

Similar

Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices
Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices

Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...

Latest news

USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates
USD: Powell Speaks on Cutting Interest Rates

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...

WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April
WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April

Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

 1
 93
 355
 213
 1684
 376
 244
 1264
 672
 1268
 54
 374
 297
 61
 43
 994
 1242
 973
 880
 1246
 375
 32
 501
 229
 1441
 975
 591
 387
 267
 55
 246
 673
 359
 226
 257
 855
 237
 1
 238
 1345
 236
 235
 56
 86
 61
 61
 57
 269
 242
 243
 682
 506
 225
 385
 53
 357
 420
 45
 253
 1767
 1809
 593
 20
 503
 240
 291
 372
 251
 500
 298
 679
 358
 33
 594
 689
 241
 220
 995
 49
 233
 350
 30
 299
 1473
 590
 1671
 502
 224
 245
 592
 509
 39
 504
 852
 36
 354
 91
 62
 98
 964
 353
 44
 972
 39
 1876
 81
 962
 7
 254
 686
 850
 82
 965
 996
 856
 371
 961
 266
 231
 218
 423
 370
 352
 853
 389
 261
 265
 60
 960
 223
 356
 692
 596
 222
 230
 262
 52
 691
 373
 377
 976
 382
 1664
 212
 258
 95
 264
 674
 977
 31
 599
 687
 64
 505
 227
 234
 683
 672
 1670
 47
 968
 92
 680
 970
 507
 675
 595
 51
 63
 64
 48
 351
 1787
 974
 262
 40
 7
 250
 590
 290
 1869
 1758
 590
 508
 1784
 685
 378
 239
 966
 221
 381
 248
 232
 65
 421
 386
 677
 252
 27
 500
 34
 94
 249
 597
 268
 46
 41
 963
 886
 992
 255
 66
 670
 228
 690
 676
 1868
 216
 90
 993
 1649
 688
 256
 380
 971
 44
 1
 1
 598
 998
 678
 58
 84
 1284
 1
 681
 2
 967
 260
 263
00:00
00:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00
23:00
23:00
00:00
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
13:00
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
22:00
23:00

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera