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Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 80.00 con TP1:79.60... Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 80.70 con TP: 81.50...
2019-11-11 • Actualizada
Traders and investors all over the world are highly anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and the Federal funds rate announcement today at 21:00 MT time. According to most forecasts, Federal Reserve (Fed) will most likely hike the interest rates to 2.25% - the record level in the last 10 years. If it happens, this will be the third rates hike in 2018.
Almost everyone is sure about the today's rates hike
The reason for this behavior of the Fed lies in large tax cut by the Congress during last year. The Fed is trying to keep things balanced and prevent economy from overheating by raising the rates. The inflation has been kept at the same level around 2%. In addition, Federal Reserve has been referencing to its policy as to “accommodative” since 2007-2009 recession. The latest data on the US economy conditions demonstrates a stable growth and a low unemployment rate. Annualized GDP for the second quarter increased by 4.2%. These facts have led to today’s upcoming decision to change the direction of the monetary policy from “accommodative” to neutral. However, this does not mean the end of the rate growth.
According to the research conducted by CME Group, the Fed meeting on November 8 will not involve the rate hike. The next statement on December 19 has a 78.6% possibility for the next rate hike by 25 basis points. The predictions from Fed officials contains 3 rate hikes in 2019 and 1 in 2020. The first policy forecast from the Fed for 2021 may also have some additional increases. In that case, it can be the longest economic expansion in the history of the United States.
Are these tools necessary for the economy? A Fed governor Lael Brainard thinks that the economic policy of Trump and his administration requires higher rates. On the other hand, Trump argued that monetary policy decisions are distracting the economic growth of the country. Some of the analysts share the idea that the market can adapt to 2-3 rate hikes, although they tend to believe that pressures on the price may continue.
What to expect for the US dollar
As a result of today’s meeting, the dollar will increase if:
On the other side, the dollar will drop if:
Even if today’s decision from the Federal Reserve is hawkish and currency-supportive, the long-term effect may not be so positive. Among the main risks following current monetary policy may be an increasing difference between interest rates in the US and other countries and, of course, the trade war between the US and China.
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 80.00 con TP1:79.60... Escenario alcista anticipado: Compras intradía sobre 80.70 con TP: 81.50...
Escenario Bajista: Ventas por debajo de 78.99 con TP1:77.93, TP2: 77.45 y tras su rompimiento TP3:76.56 y TP4: 75.70. Escenario Alcista: Compras sobre 78.00(esperar pullback a esta zona) con TP1: 1679.00 (POC descubierto*), TP2: 79.33 y TP3: 79.66 en intradía.
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 0.6560 con TP:0.65 y TP2: 0.6466 Escenario Alcista: Compras sobre 0.66 con TP1:0.6651
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 1.0820 / 1.0841... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 1.0827...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 2200 / 2194... Escenario alcista más próximo: Compras sobre 2197... Escenario alcista tras retroceso: Considera compras en torno a cada zona de demanda...
Escenario bajista: Ventas por debajo de 5220 ... Escenario alcista: Compras sobre 5225 (Si el precio falla en romper por debajo con decisión)
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