2023-06-14 • Updated
Get ready for the latest on the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision. In a surprising move, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time since embarking on an aggressive tightening cycle. But hold your horses. It's not a pivot or a pause!
The Fed may use this opportunity to signal that more rate hikes are on the horizon, depending on how the economy evolves, financial stability, and inflation trajectory. With a mixed bag of economic data and lingering uncertainties, caution is the name of the game. While the Fed will likely skip a rate increase this time, they may hint at the need for one or two more hikes by the end of 2023. It's a delicate policy compromise amid strong employment and inflation concerns. Stay tuned for the Fed's policy statement and projections, and listen out for Chairman Powell's press conference. Remember, no extended pause or rate cuts are expected for now. So buckle up and keep an eye on the ever-changing forex landscape!
In line with my analysis last week, the US Dollar declined heavily from the pivot zone and resistance trendline. From all indications, the price is expected to continue on that downward path until it reaches the demand zone I’ve marked out - which would be the case if the Fed keeps the interest rate steady at the end of the day. I will watch for a sharp reaction from the marked demand zone before halting my hopes of a bearish continuation.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 102.660
Invalidation: 103.646
The bullish movement on EURUSD is yet to reach an efficient resistance level. Therefore, as highlighted in the chart above, the only logical poise is to expect a continuation of the bullish movement until the supply zone is reached. If the FOMC rates decision turns out to be dovish, the outlined direction would be the most likely outcome.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 1.08595
Invalidation: 1.07501
GBPUSD has reached a crucial resistance level after commencing a solid rally from the 100-Day moving average, which on a regular day would imply a possibility of a bearish movement. However, in this case, we may see the price break clearly above that resistance level owing to the press release from the FOMC meeting later today. The interest rate is expected to play a vital role in the eventual outcome of the GBPUSD forecast.
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bullish
Target: 1.27401
Invalidation: 1.25084
USDJPY is inching closer to a major rally-base-drop supply zone and has been rejected from that area recently. Pending the release of the Fed interest rates figures, I believe we will see a decline of buying pressure from the USD, leading to a bearish momentum overall.
The confluences for this position include;
Analyst’s Expectations:
Direction: Bearish
Target: 136.494
Invalidation: 141.014
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.
During the Asian session on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair rebounded after two days of losses, reaching around 1.3590. This uptick is fueled by a stronger US dollar and lower crude oil prices, which put pressure on the Canadian dollar. The decline in Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices to approximately $80.70 is attributed to...
The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounds on Monday, despite a slight dip in the US Dollar (USD) and higher US Treasury yields. Investors are eyeing Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2023. The AUD gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index rises, especially in mining and energy sectors. Additionally, the Aussie...
Gold prices rose on Monday as the US Dollar weakened amidst speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June. This weakened Dollar was partly due to improved risk sentiment pushing US Treasury yields lower. Despite facing challenges from declining yields, gold prices recovered to nearly $2,170 per troy ounce, driven by the Dollar's weakness. Federal Reserve Chair...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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