On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets.
GBP/USD: bulls retreat, but don't give up
2019-11-11 • Updated
TP1 1.3530 TP2 1.3585
On the daily chart, GBP/USD is retesting the upper border of the previous consolidation range 1.3040-1.3320. In case of successful break of support at 1.3290-1.3320, bears will have an opportunity to trigger “Shakeout-Fakeout” pattern. To resume the uptrend, bulls need to conquer resistance at 1.3520 and 1.3585.
On H1, GBP/USD has almost reached 78.6% target of the “Gartley” pattern. A pullback of support at 1.3295 with the following return inside the uptrend channel will allow bulls to develop their attack.
The US Dollar has been remarkably sluggish for the past few weeks despite being within a distinct Demand zone. My expectation of a springing rebound off the demand zone has not exactly played out yet, however, the zone remains unbroken.
As I earlier indicated in my article this week, I am expecting an upward push from the Dollar as a reaction from the Demand zone I have marked out. The PPI release earlier moved prices a bit but lacked sufficient momentum to cause a significant break of structure - and thus, no change of trend.
On Thursday, the 2nd of February, the Bank of England will publish its report concerning interest rates and inflation data for the Eurozone. Professionals and investors anticipate that Andrew Bailey’s lead team of policy makers will likely raise interest rates to 4%; the highest in over a decade, for the tenth time in a row.
The first FOMC meeting comes after a buildup of anticipation from traders and investors alike, as the markets await what posture the Fed will take regarding the interest rates; would there be a hike or a cut in interest rates?
Western countries are trying to find other options for oil and gas supplies after a 10th package of sanctions, which will put more pressure on Russian oil and decrease global oil supply. Italy, for example, is in talks with Libya.