The wave of ups and downs in the Forex market did not bypass the exotic currencies in 2018. Let’s look at how analysts predict the performance of those ones, which suffered the most during 2018 - the Brazilian real and Turkish lira.
GBP/USD: outlook for March 20-24
GBP/USD surged to 1.2390. The Bank of England left rates on hold, but its member Kristin Forbes voted for a hike thereby showing that policymakers becoming more and more concerned with a rise in inflation. Her vote surprised the market and made the pound rise. Post-FOMC weakness of the US dollar was another tailwind for the British pound. On the political front, Theresa May has finally received a formal permission to trigger Article 50 by the end of March. Nicola Sturgeon’s bid to hold another referendum on the Scottish independence of the country was rejected by the UK Prime Minister who tries to avoid spreading the country’s resources between defending the British integrity and securing advantageous separation with the EU. This news offered additional support to the pound.
Next week keep an eye on the UK CPI figures and retail sales coming on Tuesday and Thursday respectively. From the US, we will be waiting for the comments on the US economic outlook from numerous FOMC members, Fed Chair Yellen’s speech scheduled for Thursday accompanied by the UK retail sales and the US unemployment claims, as well as the US core durable goods orders on Friday.
Technically, short-term indicators remain in neutral-bearish territory and might prompt a retracement towards immediate supports at 1.2350, 1.2290 (100-H4 MA) and 1.2210 (near 50-H4 MA). A break above resistance at 1.2430 (top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud, downtrend line) suggests a further uplift towards the resistances at 1.2480, 1.2500 and 1.2550.
The last "Pennant" pattern has been broken, so bulls found resistance at 1.2915. Nevertheless, the market is likely going to move on, so we should...
USD/CHF remains weak across the board and stays strong with a bearish consolidation below the 200 SMA at H1 chart…
There's no any reversal pattern so far, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area in the short term...