2019-11-11 • Updated
The British pound dropped in the past week on UK election jitters and weak economic fundamentals. Monday’s terrorist attack in Manchester city rattled people’s confidence in the government and shrank May’s lead in the polls. British GDP for the first quarter was revised downwards to 0.2% from 0.3% back in April. UK consumer spending, the key economic growth engine, had its worst quarter since 2014. It seems that Brexit has finally started taking its toll on the British economy.
With only two weeks before the legislative elections, the pound should remain under pressure in the near-term. Next week, investors will be watching for the British manufacturing and construction PMI. If economic data continues posting weak gains, the pound will be set to test lower levels. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar will be a bellwether of the pair with the CB consumer confidence coming on Tuesday, Wednesday’s Chicago PMI followed by the US pending home sales. Thursday will be marked with ADP report, unemployment claims, and manufacturing figures. On Friday, traders will be focused on the US labor market report. Strong readings will bring hopes for an additional rate hike at the Fed’s June meeting.
The technical outlook for the GBP/USD is bearish. The pair broke the support border of the short-term upward trading channel. This was a signal of potential reversal or correction. The British pound may slide towards the nearest supports at 1.2825, 1.2750 and 1.2596. To restore the uptrend, the bulls need to break the 1.30 psychologically important round level.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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