2020-06-19 • Updated
Investors are confused as both negative and positive factors weigh on GBP. Which side will win?
Let’s get it sorted out. We can notice on the GBP/USD chart that the price is stuck near 1.24. Most traders can’t choose the team: bears or bulls.
On the bearish side, the Bank of England boosted the bond-buying program by only 100 billion pounds – much less than everybody expected. Most economists criticized it as the country hasn’t yet recovered and needs more support. Also, concerns about the second coronavirus wave weigh a lot on the sentiment-sensitive pound. New cases in Beijing, Texas and Florida have just fueled that worries.
On the bullish side, actual UK retail sales turned out better than the forecasts. Sales rose by 12% – twice more than analysts anticipated. That basically means that the British economy has started recovering. That is great, but most investors shrugged off that news.
The UK manufacturing PMI will be released on June 23 at 11:30 MT time. If numbers come better than expected, the British pound will gain.
Brexit trade talks will have a huge impact on GBP. There are optimistic prospects that the EU and the UK can reach a deal even before the agreed deadline, that is scheduled for the end of this year. The UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson really wants to end talks as soon as possible. GBP will definitely benefit, if this happens.
The GBP/USD pair has just broken the support line at the 50-day moving average at 1.2400. That gave a fresh stimulus to sellers. We can assume that the price may fall to 1.2300, when it will meet the barrier. The next strong support will be at the one-month low at 1.2100. Keep an eye on the resistance at 1.2500. The move above it will push the price upward to 1.2680.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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