2020-12-14 • Updated
XAU/USD has been falling due to market optimism. Will it keep moving down?
First of all, the FDA approved the vaccine of Pfizer and BioNTech for emergency use. That’s why the market sentiment improved, and investors streamed their capital to riskier currencies and stocks. Elsewhere, the EU and the UK agreed to continue negotiating, giving a signal that the deal may be reached soon. The prospect for the Brexit agreement added to the risk-on sentiment as well. Even hopes for the additional US stimulus package and the massive USD selloff haven’t helped gold to rise.
XAU/USD is moving inside the descending channel. It is approaching the key support of the 200-day moving average of $1 810. Gold is unlikely to break it down for the first attempt. That’s why we can expect it will bounce off this level initially. If it manages to break it down, it may drop to the next support at the low of November 30 at $1 770. On the flip side, the move above the recent highs of $1 845 will drive XAU/USD to the 50-period moving average of $1 870, which it has failed to cross several times. In a nutshell, gold is stuck between two moving averages.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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