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GOLD: time to buy?
2020-11-24 • Updated
While the fundamental background stays quite uncertain with relation to the COVID-19, Brexit, and other global and regional processes, the technical approach to trade doesn’t change: buy lows, sell highs. Therefore, let’s orient ourselves in the market now with the example of gold and see how we can trade it now.
In the long-term, since August, gold has been going sideways, within the channel between 1 855 and 1 964 (or, close to those levels). Does it mean things have become better? Not really. In fact, it’s irrelevant. But what you do know is that there was the strategic high of 2 060, and it was left. That means, it will be reached, eventually, and it will function as a magnet for the price. How do we know that? Exactly based on the fact the things are not really becoming better. There are already opinions that the third wave of the virus may hit Europe and other parts of the world not long after the second one goes away. Add to that other regional and global issue, and you have a perfect fuel for gold to keep rising. So, in the mid-term, gold will rise. But to benefit from this, you would have to enter the position now. Why exactly now?
If you look closely at the chart below, you will see that since September, there has not been tactical support for gold other than 1 855 (marked 2). Meaning, the one it is at now. What does it suggest? That the bullish bounce upwards is very probable – same like it happened in September, October, and this month as well. Are there reasons for gold to drop below 1 855? Not many. Are there reasons to rise? Absolutely. That’s wh, buying hold now appears to be a correct tactical suggestion. But does it work only in the long-term? Not necessarily.
The same channel we are observing now has the resistance level of 1 964 (marked 1). It saw the price trade right below it in August-September, and it sent the price downwards a couple of weeks ago. That means, 1 964 is the mid-term intermediary target for bulls – that’s in case you don’t want to wait until gold rises to 2 060 and above. How likely it is to rise up there? Pretty likely. Again, just based on a basic fundamental analysis: are things becoming really better? – not really; not yet, at least; are the big concerns still there? – definitely. So, in the long-term, gold should have more fuel to rise than to drop.
In the short-term, the gold price appears to be going through a sideways channel with the same support of 1 855 and the resistance of 1 900. Taking into account the recent bounce from the support that happened last week, it would be logical to assume that the price would be making a new upswing to the heights of 1 900. If it bounces other there, which is quite possible, it will form another wave down – probably to the same support of 1 855 or even lower. However, sooner or later, the resistance of 1 900 will be broken. When that happens, the door to 1 964 will be unlocked, and bulls will probably use all the power they have to reach 1 964. It may or may not take place in the course of the current upward retrace: crossing the resistance of 1 900 will tell that. But in either scenario, the current moment suggests that we are at the lows – both from the short-term and the long-term perspective. So if there is an asset to trade now, gold is definitely something a trader would be interested to look at.
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