2020-09-18 • Updated
Oil keeps rallying for the fourth day in a row after Goldman Sachs claimed that the oil market is in deficit and also because of the recent storm in the Gulf of Mexico, which led to the sharp decline of oil production. It is the best week for oil since June!
Analysts from Goldman Sachs anticipate that the oil market is going to be in a deficit of 3 million barrels per day by the end of the year. Moreover, they draw forecasts for Brent oil prices: $49 by the year-end and $65 by the third quarter of 2021. The Saudi Arabian energy minister cautioned traders not to consider selling of oil and even threatened that if they do so, they would be hurt “like hell.”
OPEC+ members held a meeting and agreed on reducing oil supply by 7.7 million barrels per day to try to artificially increase prices. Besides, OPEC claimed that it would take action, if some members continue disobeying the agreement to cut oil production to prevent the oil market from crash amid the coronavirus crisis. Saudi Arabia emphasized that it will do everything to sustain the recovery and therefore won’t allow any country to cheat on production quotas. This week, the International Energy Agency claimed that the United Arab Emirates broke its pledge to quotas last month as well as Iraq.
However, from OPEC+ view, the oil supply is not the main problem as it can regulate it. The sticking point remains the oil demand, which is out of the control of OPEC+. The demand recovery has slowed down recently amid rising new virus cases. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak anticipates global oil demand to rebound only in the second quarter of the next year.
WTI oil price is currently below the 50-day moving average near $41.00. If it manages to jump above the high of August 10 at $42.00, the way towards the next round number at $43.00 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, the move below the key psychological mark of $40.00 will drive the price lower to the support of $38.00.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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