Brent crude futures is maintaining stability this Friday, with traders awaiting an OPEC+ meeting that might lead to further supply cuts. Brent crude was down 8 cents at $81.34 a barrel, following a 0.7% drop in the previous session.
Goldman Sachs forecasts oil deficit
2020-09-18 • Updated
Oil keeps rallying for the fourth day in a row after Goldman Sachs claimed that the oil market is in deficit and also because of the recent storm in the Gulf of Mexico, which led to the sharp decline of oil production. It is the best week for oil since June!
Analysts from Goldman Sachs anticipate that the oil market is going to be in a deficit of 3 million barrels per day by the end of the year. Moreover, they draw forecasts for Brent oil prices: $49 by the year-end and $65 by the third quarter of 2021. The Saudi Arabian energy minister cautioned traders not to consider selling of oil and even threatened that if they do so, they would be hurt “like hell.”
OPEC+ members held a meeting and agreed on reducing oil supply by 7.7 million barrels per day to try to artificially increase prices. Besides, OPEC claimed that it would take action, if some members continue disobeying the agreement to cut oil production to prevent the oil market from crash amid the coronavirus crisis. Saudi Arabia emphasized that it will do everything to sustain the recovery and therefore won’t allow any country to cheat on production quotas. This week, the International Energy Agency claimed that the United Arab Emirates broke its pledge to quotas last month as well as Iraq.
However, from OPEC+ view, the oil supply is not the main problem as it can regulate it. The sticking point remains the oil demand, which is out of the control of OPEC+. The demand recovery has slowed down recently amid rising new virus cases. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak anticipates global oil demand to rebound only in the second quarter of the next year.
WTI oil price is currently below the 50-day moving average near $41.00. If it manages to jump above the high of August 10 at $42.00, the way towards the next round number at $43.00 will be clear. In the opposite scenario, the move below the key psychological mark of $40.00 will drive the price lower to the support of $38.00.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
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