
As you must already know, the direction of Gold is mainly dependent on the Price action of DXY (US Dollar index). So first, we take a look at the US Dollar index.
2022-12-16 • Updated
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points during the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, at 20:00 GMT+2. As inflation keeps surging, this will be the first small attempt to curb it. What does it mean for the US dollar? Let’s find out.
The rise of inflation is undoubtedly a huge problem for the United States right now. The annual inflation rate reached 7.9% in February 2022, the highest level since January 1982. At the same time, the economy is expanding at an ultra-fast pace. For example, the US unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% - a new post-pandemic low. Another factor that triggers Fed to act sooner rather than later is the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. The US sanctions against Russia and the ban of Russia's oil export boosted commodity prices and left no doubt about upcoming rate hikes.
In addition to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, the regulator will release a so-called dot-plot. This is a report, where the Fed members post their expectations of rate hikes. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg see 5 rate increases with the rate reaching 1.25% this year. However, some analysts see an even more hawkish Fed with seven interest rate changes.
The US dollar will likely react to the actual data in these projections. If the Fed turns out to be more hawkish than the market expects it to be (with more than seven rate hikes or half-point rate hike) the USD will soar.
If you look at the chart of the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the American currency, you can notice that the decision has already been priced into the market. As a result, the USD has reached the 99.40 level. Thus we can expect a sharp reversal after the meeting unless the Fed surprises. In that case, the US Dollar index can plunge to 98 and even lower to 96.50. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve may express cautiousness amid the ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the possible slowdown of economic growth.
EURUSD has been trading within a symmetrical triangle. That is, after a downtrend, we may see a continuation of the downtrend and reach the support levels at 1.0900 and 1.0850. However, if the Fed fails to surprise the market, the upside momentum to the resistance of 1.1100 (50-period MA) on H4 will be in focus.
Follow the moves of EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold, and US500 ahead of the big event for the Forex market with FBS!
As you must already know, the direction of Gold is mainly dependent on the Price action of DXY (US Dollar index). So first, we take a look at the US Dollar index.
On January 12, the Bureau of Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, a key index for determining interest rates. While we await the release, experts forecast a decline in the CPI data, a hint at weaker Dollar values in the global markets.
Hello, my beautiful readers. This week, we continue our critically detailed look at the markets in hopes of getting profitable trading opportunities. As usual, I'll be starting with the DXY (US Dollar Index) since it holds considerable sway over the Major currency pairs.
Last year was tough for the Japanese yen. USDJPY gained more than 30% over 2022, striking above 150 in October. While anticipation of slower Fed rate hikes pulled the pair below the 130 level at the start of 2023, the speculations over the destiny of BOJ’s yield control policy grabbed the attention of the Japanese assets in the middle of January. What lies ahead for traders of the Japanese yen?
Today, at 5:00 pm (GMT +2), the Bank of Canada will publish the Overnight Rate, which represents short-term interest rates, and is pivotal to the overall pricing of the Canadian Dollar in the global markets. Let's look at how the markets are faring ahead of the BoC rates release.
In a call scheduled for January 25, 00:30 am GMT+2, Microsoft will publish the company's earnings for the final quarter of 2022 and comment on the results, projections, and outlook for the nearest future of the company.
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