Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
How Many Fed Rate Hikes the USD Will Like?
2022-12-16 • Updated
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points during the upcoming meeting on Wednesday, at 20:00 GMT+2. As inflation keeps surging, this will be the first small attempt to curb it. What does it mean for the US dollar? Let’s find out.
What Led To Rate Hikes
The rise of inflation is undoubtedly a huge problem for the United States right now. The annual inflation rate reached 7.9% in February 2022, the highest level since January 1982. At the same time, the economy is expanding at an ultra-fast pace. For example, the US unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% - a new post-pandemic low. Another factor that triggers Fed to act sooner rather than later is the Russia-Ukraine military conflict. The US sanctions against Russia and the ban of Russia's oil export boosted commodity prices and left no doubt about upcoming rate hikes.
How Many Rate Hikes to Expect
In addition to the Fed Interest Rate Decision, the regulator will release a so-called dot-plot. This is a report, where the Fed members post their expectations of rate hikes. The economists surveyed by Bloomberg see 5 rate increases with the rate reaching 1.25% this year. However, some analysts see an even more hawkish Fed with seven interest rate changes.
The US dollar will likely react to the actual data in these projections. If the Fed turns out to be more hawkish than the market expects it to be (with more than seven rate hikes or half-point rate hike) the USD will soar.
The USD ahead of the Event
If you look at the chart of the US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the American currency, you can notice that the decision has already been priced into the market. As a result, the USD has reached the 99.40 level. Thus we can expect a sharp reversal after the meeting unless the Fed surprises. In that case, the US Dollar index can plunge to 98 and even lower to 96.50. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve may express cautiousness amid the ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and the possible slowdown of economic growth.
EURUSD has been trading within a symmetrical triangle. That is, after a downtrend, we may see a continuation of the downtrend and reach the support levels at 1.0900 and 1.0850. However, if the Fed fails to surprise the market, the upside momentum to the resistance of 1.1100 (50-period MA) on H4 will be in focus.
The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Welcome to October, the tenth month of 2023. For this installment of What to Trade, I have handpicked a few of my favorite trade ideas for the month. Let’s go over a few of them.
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