How Will China’s Regulation Affect Oil?

How Will China’s Regulation Affect Oil?

2023-08-30 • Updated

China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August. This move is seen as a strategy to support industrial activities, boost the country's economy, and sustain crude oil imports. The government controls China's clean oil product exports through quota allocations, focusing on meeting domestic demands. China exported 23.99 million metric tons of gasoline, jet fuel, and gasoil in the first seven months of the year, up 76.1% compared to the same period in 2022.

US Dollar - D1 Timeframe


The US Dollar has been prepping for a bearish move for a couple of weeks now, and it seems fully ready to make the move. The resistance trendline, 200-day moving average, and the rally-base-drop supply appear to cause the bearish momentum. In this case, I expect that the bears remain in charge for at least a short while since the price may create a new, lower low.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target: 102.630

Invalidation: 103.771

XBRUSD - D1 Timeframe


XBRUSD, as seen in the chart above, has made an initial reaction from the trendline support. However, the price may slip lower toward the 200-day Moving average to find a much stronger confluence based on the demand zone, 88% Fibonacci retracement level, and the moving average support.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target: 88.55

Invalidation: 78.45

XTIUSD - D1 Timeframe


Like XBRUSD, as we saw earlier, the price action on XTIUSD has also made its initial pull away from the trendline support. However, I find it hard to rely on this move because the current market reaction doesn't take place from an actively interesting confluence area. In that sense, I hope to see the price slink into the highlighted demand zone close to the 200-day moving average for my entry consideration.

Analyst’s Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target: 84.59

Invalidation: 74.12


The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.


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