2021-01-26 • Updated
HSBC wrote in its regular monthly forecast that "the outlook for GBP is not promising, in our view, given the broader underlying flow dynamics". The common consensus was that the pound would rally after the signing of an EU-UK trade deal. However, HSBC thinks oppositely.
The Bank of America agrees with HSBC and points to the cheapness of UK assets in comparison to EU and US. Besides, the pound exchange rates are significantly lower than they were before the EU referendum results in June 2016.
HSBC forecasts GBP/USD will be trading at 1.3400 through this year, while EUR/GBP will rise to 0.94.
EUR/GBP is touching the dips now, therefore we could expect the pair to rise soon. On the weekly chart, the downside is limited by the 100- and 200-period moving averages at 0.8840. Let’s get a closer look and analyze the 4-hour chart. We see that the pair is heading towards 0.8400 at the lower line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, which the pair is unlikely to cross. Therefore, we can expect the pullback to the upside from this level. On the way up, the pair will meet resistance levels at Monday’s high of 0.8885 and the high of January 22 at 0.8920.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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