Hey guys, this is the last full trading week in May, and many forward-looking individuals like myself are already preparing themselves to seize whatever opportunities June may have in store. On this note, I will review a few commodities that have satisfied my quest for swing-trading opportunities in the coming month. Follow me!
Huge Week for the USD
2023-02-14 • Updated
This week, there is a thrilling array of fundamental releases for the US Dollar. This array features several high-impact news releases like the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The overall impact of this line-up remains to be seen, but we can formulate predictions based on the current price action on the DXY and the major pairs. Let's take a look at them right away!
US Dollar - Daily Timeframe
The Daily timeframe chart of the US Dollar index shows the price currently reacting from the 50-Day moving average and the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement. Considering the most recent break of the structure being bullish, I am expecting to see an initial bearish reaction from the Dollar. After that bearish reaction, we can hope for a bullish continuation from the drop-base-rally demand zone I have marked towards the bottom of the chart attached above.
GBPUSD has recently broken below the trendline support of the rising channel. If the price rises to meet the trendline, I expect that to act as a bearish confirmation. The highlighted supply zone is also a crucial confluence to consider in favor of a bearish move.
EURUSD is currently reacting from a confluence of the 50-Day moving average. However, the price action to the left suggests that the price needs to fill up the imbalance created by the break of the previous high.
XAUUSD - 4 Hour Timeframe
Gold has recently broken below the trendline support of the rising wedge, followed by a retracement and another structure break. Based on this, the order block responsible for the most recent structure break would act as an area of resistance. The 50-period moving average provides further confirmation in favor of a bearish reaction.
The trading of CFDs comes at a risk. Thus, to succeed, you have to manage risks properly. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
You can access more of such trade ideas and prompt market updates on the telegram channel.
The Bank of England (BoE) has dramatically shifted its economic forecasts. They no longer expect a recession in the UK and have upgraded their growth projections. This year, the BoE predicts GDP growth of +0.25%, a significant improvement from previous expectations. Next year's forecast is even more optimistic, with a projected growth of 0.75%.
Here's the scoop: The Bank of England (BOE) is set to accelerate the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet, according to one of its deputy governors. Currently, the BOE is unwinding about £20 billion of quantitative easing every three months. The goal is to reduce the stock by around £80 billion per year through active sales and maturing assets.
Let's dive into the latest developments shaping the global economic landscape. Good news first: the threat of an unprecedented US debt crisis has receded, as US lawmakers passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default. Phew! But don't pop the champagne just yet, because storm clouds are still looming. High inflation, rising interest rates, and sluggish growth are challenges that have yet to disappear.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Let's dive into the world of gold. Currently, the price of gold, represented by XAUUSD, is stuck in indecision, hovering around the $1,975 mark. The market is anxiously awaiting two important factors: the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the extension of the US debt ceiling.