Key Moment for the Oil Market

Key Moment for the Oil Market

2023-03-15 • Updated

Oil prices fell to a three-month low following the release of US inflation data which was in line with expectations. The annual inflation rate of 6% and monthly rate of 0.4% were unsurprising, but the monthly core Consumer Price Index (CPI) beat expectations at 0.5%. This has led to the market pricing in a 25 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve next week after briefly considering a pause in the aftermath of the recent bank failures of Silvergate Corp., SVB Financial, and Signature Bank.

The market is now viewing the Federal Reserve as hawkish again, which has raised concerns about a potential recession, given that the tightening cycle is yet to play out. We hope to gain more insight into the Fed's inclination at next week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Still, the market remains uncertain and anxious about the economy's future. Having said all this, let's now look at the technical side of things.



XBRUSD on the Daily timeframe is currently squeezing between the support trendline from 4 years ago and the 100-day MA. Note that the price is currently stalling around 88% of the Fibonacci retracement, which may indicate bullish intent. However, there remains a bit of uncertainty as the MAs are still poised in a bearish array.

Analysts’ Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target: 85.55

Invalidation: 74.82


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How Did EUR React to the ECB Meeting? 
How Did EUR React to the ECB Meeting? 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its tenth consecutive rate hike since July 2022 and bringing the total increase to 450 basis points. The ECB is primarily concerned about high inflation levels, both current and projected, with concerns extending into the future.

Can the CPI Release Reverse The USD? 
Can the CPI Release Reverse The USD? 

The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.

Will the NFP help the greenback?
Will the NFP help the greenback?

The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.

Latest news

Gold is Rising Despite Inflation Returns
Gold is Rising Despite Inflation Returns

Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.

Can the Chinese Economy Recover?
Can the Chinese Economy Recover?

Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.

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