2019-11-11 • Updated
A new trading week brings new opportunities. Have you read “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable”? The main idea of the book is simple: we should be ready for unpredictable events. As soon as you are ready to meet with something that no one expected, you will win. Let’s consider all possible variations for market moves in the upcoming days.
This week started with a bright sky for the stock market. Optimistic Chinese data that were released on Friday eased worries about the slowdown in the global economy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin provided hints on the close trade deal between the US and China. It became another important factor that improved the market sentiment.
Traders’ eyes are on the renewed earnings season that will show the strength of the American companies. Check the earnings calendar and trade stocks with FBS.
Let’s focus on the Forex.
On Monday, the US dollar index had been moving down after the attack of Mr. Trump on the Fed. American president claimed that it was a fault of the Fed that the stock market hasn’t been up 5,000 to 10,000 additional points as it was supposed to be. As a result, the USD has depreciated against most of the currencies.
Events to watch:
The direction of the USD will determine the moves of major currency pairs.
Last week didn’t determine either strength or weakness to the Canadian dollar. The CAD index didn’t surprise with significant moves. The beginning of the week isn’t shiny for the loonie, too. Although the USD was a loser against most of the currencies, the Canadian dollar wasn’t among them.
Events to watch:
Levels to watch: on Monday, during Asian and European sessions, the trading was limited with the lack of both bulls and bears strength. The further direction of the pair will depend on Monday closure price. If bulls manage to hold USD/CAD above 1.3334, odds of the further rise will prevent on the market. The first strong resistance lies at 1.3384 – the upper boundary of the consolidation zone. As soon as 1.3384 is broken, the USD traders will be able to push the pair towards 1.3346. However, technical indicators signal risks of the decline. MACD and Awesome Oscillator are near to cross the 0 level upside down. Bears need to pull the pair below 1.3305 (50-day MA and the bottom line of the previous consolidation). Next supports are at 1.3272 and 1.3221.
Although the USD isn’t strong and the market sentiment improved, the Australian dollar couldn’t use the situation in its favor.
Events to watch:
Levels to watch: Monday trading was weak. To prove their strength, bulls need to push the pair above 200-day MA at 0.7197. The next resistance will lie at 0.7212. After the breakthrough, AUD/USD will get a chance to climb to 0.7255 and higher. Technical indicators don’t signal the fall of the pair. However, the rise may be limited if the US dollar recovers. In this case, AUD/USD will return to the consolidation range between 0.7107 and 0.7170. A break below 0.7107 will provoke a decline to 0.7044 (pay attention to the trendline).
Traders are quite tired of the GBP trading. Did you hear the news that software robots crashed because of the many Brexit headlines? Not surprising. However, up to now, it seems like the situation has softened after UK and EU managed to agree on the prolonged Brexit last week.
Events to watch:
Levels to watch: During Monday, the GBP/USD pair had been rising based on the weak USD. However, last week, the price formed several candlesticks with long upper shadows that was a sign of low bullish strength. Bulls need to push the pair above 1.3125 to cut risks of the downtrend. A breakthrough above 1.3186 will confirm a forming upward movement. However, the pressure is high and the pair may turn around towards 1.3072. Consider the trendline as it will add additional pressure on the pair. Moreover, MACD and Awesome Oscillator formed a bearish divergence. It’s not strong but signs of it exist. Next supports are at 1.3012 and 1.2959. 200- and 100-day MAs are located near 1.2959, as a result, the pair may rebound.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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