Morning brief for April 12

Morning brief for April 12

2019-11-11 • Updated

It seems that investors are still spooked by heightened geopolitical tensions as we see gold, Treasuries and yen looming large to King Kong sizes. The VIX, so-called fear barometer for Wall-Streeters, spiked to the levels last seen in November, after North Korea threatened to use nuclear strike if provoked, while Trump’s fingers aggravated situation tweeting  something like North Korea is asking for troubles, the US will solve the problem with or without China, the key political player in Asian region (hopefully, Trump did discuss this issue with Xi Jinping by phone tonight; both parties are determined to resolve the problem through peaceful means).

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson headed for Moscow striving to convince Mr. Putin to abandon his support for Assad, which has been crucial in keeping the regime in power after six years of Syrian civil war. He will meet with Russia Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later today. The meeting with Russian President is not on agenda, as it is still not clear whether Putin will agree to see Tillerson amid the increasing tensions in US-Russian relations.

Political uncertainty in France in the countdown of the first round of presidential election doesn’t work for the euro’s benefit. It sends the single currency to 1.0595 against the greenback as Melenchon’s steady rise in polls makes the outcome of French already topsy-turvy elections unpredictable. At the present moment, the downward pressure is easing; EUR/USD edged up to 1.0605 in Tokyo morning. But only a break above 1.0665 would be a sign of the uptrend restoration.

GBP/USD is still consolidating in broad range of 1.2355 – 1.2615 levels. Theresa May has already triggered the Article 50, but she will probably have to wait until a new French President is elected and a new German government is installed (well, basically, until the fall, as German parliamentary election is scheduled for September). The UK labor force report is in focus today (it is due at 11:30 am MT time). The market participants are looking for unchanged outcome in the unemployment rate and the average weekly earnings. BoE Governor Carney will be speaking before the publication of the labor data. It would be interesting to see whether he gives any comments on the decline in real wages.

USD/CAD has recovered in today’s session having risen to 1.3335 from 1.3310. The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision at 5:00 pm MT time. While a “no change” statement is expected, the improvement in recent data releases and recent surge in oil prices could push the BoC’s official to change their neutral policy guidance to the hawkish one.

Brent oil futures got additional boost overnight after Saudi Arabia told OPEC officials it is determined to support the extension of the output cut agreement for additional six months. The quotes hit $56.35 mark in the Asia today.

Aussie rose a little bit higher against the USD in the past session. China inflation data played a role: there was a small dip in CPI figures, and a modest tick in the PPI data. With a stronger PPI, Chinese senior officials will not be dissuaded from their winding back of accommodation. Although the recent downward momentum is gradually waning, there is still a scope for the additional dip in AUD/USD towards the support at 0.7470.

The technical outlook for NZD/USD is neutral. The prices are ranging within 0.6920 – 06970 levels. On the downside, there is a steady support at 0.6900. A break of the upper border of the range (0.6970) will allow us to count on the continuation of the rally.

 

Similar

Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices
Oil: Russia-Ukraine Crisis Could Boost Oil Prices

Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...

WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot
WTI and Brent React To a Key Pivot

Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...

Latest news

WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April
WTT: Currency Pairs To Trade In April

Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.

Deposit with your local payment systems

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera