Morning brief for June 1

Australian manufacturing PMI and NZ terms of trade kicked the Asian session off but did little to give rise to market fluctuations. Aussie gained some strength in the light of the data but then was hit by the Caixin China manufacturing data that showed industry contraction for the first time in 11 months. AUD/USD dropped below 0.74. The following pullback has shifted the pressure to the downside but at the present moment, a sustained move below 0.7380 seems unlikely.

USD/JPY moved above 111 in the Asian session. The Capex data from Japan beat market expectations and argued for a stronger yen, But the international securities flows data confirming the fifth week of Japanese buying foreign bonds prevented a further yen’s appreciation.

EUR/USD edged higher above 1.1250 overnight. In the Tokyo morning, it was flat at 1.1243. The US dollar remains pressured as FBI and several congressional panels carry out an investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election and possible collusion by the Trump campaign. The following investigations have become too much of a distraction in Trump’s presidency. Trump’s fellow Republicans urged him to tweet less and focus on delivering his election promises instead. The current outlook for EUR/USD pair is neutral. The single currency has to register a New York close above 1.1300 for us start targeting higher levels.

GBP/USD declined on Thursday on fears that PM Theresa May could lose control of parliament in Britain’s June 8 election. A YouGov showed that May needs more seats to form a solid, not hung parliament thereby raising prospects of political turmoil before formal Brexit talks begin. Other polls, however, show May winning a big majority. At the present moment, GBP/USD currency pair is trading near 1.2860. It could be a start of the consolidation phase. In the near-term future, GBP will likely trade sideways within a broad range of 1.2800 – 13000.

USD/CAD is still in the near-term consolidation phase. The pair is trading at .125. it has a room for extension towards 1.3540 as well as slow down the pace of its rally and slide towards 1.3480, 1.3420. oil prices didn’t help Loonie to regain its strength. However, they did rise a little in the past session after a report that showed US crude stockpiles had fallen more than expected. Brent oil futures are now trading at $51.20 hardly showing any signs of recovery after the massive drop the OPEC members failed to fully satisfy market expectations.

Anastasia Mileshkina

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