The oil market is always highly volatile.
Morning brief for March 21
Today’s Asian session has been something of a variation on a theme with a bit stronger USD, lower commodity currencies, higher euro and soft pound.
The euro was a winner of today’s session following the win of independent candidate Emmanuel Macron in the first French election debate. It seems that broad fears of populist drift in European politics have eased a bit. Technically, the current recovery may extend towards 1.0825 from present 1.0755. A pullback below 1.0670 would indicate the restoration of the bearish trend. Today’s focus will be on two Fed speeches both delivered from monetary policy hawks – Loretta Mester and Esther George neither, voters this year on the FOMC.
USD/JPY gained on the session having risen to 112.85. A move above 113.5 would signal us that prices entered the bullish phase. The news flow is really light. Japan’s banks are back from holiday today. Japan’s PM Abe and German Chancellor Merkel ranged themselves against advoсates of protectionism.
AUD/USD edged down to 0.7700 having erased its yesterday’s gains. Commodities are trading lower. Another headwind was the RBA March meeting minutes that was quite dovish. The current undertone is neutral. Aussie might choose trading sideways in the range of 0.7660/0.7740. A drop below the support at 0.7630 would indicate the restoration of the downtrend.
Kiwi, in general, little changed on the session having slipped to 0.7032 from yesterday’s high at 0.7070. Today’s special focus will on the Global Dairy auction. Kiwi took some heat last time when dairy prices dropped 6.3%.
GBP/USD slid to 1.2360 mainly on the news that Article 50 will be triggered on March 29. It will launch the two years of talks between the EU and the UK. Sterling traders will be interested in tonight’s CPI release scheduled for 11.30 MT time. The inflation figures are expected to rise from 1% to 1.8% and core inflation from 1.6 to 1.7%. A disappointing release can sand prices to 1.2333 or lower towards 1.2320.
USD/CAD spiked to 1.3360 in the course of the past session. The US dollar has a room for further appreciation. The immediate resistance is located at 1.3420. Loonie’s watchers will cast their eyes on the Canadian retail sales report and current account data. On the downside, there were several sturdy supports at 1.3280 and 1.3210.
Oil prices edged higher towards $51.87 after investors renewed their expectations that OPEC and non-OPEC members extend their output cuts beyond the official deadline – June.
Narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the bulls could breakout the Kijun’s resistance.
GBP/JPY broke support level 141…
Recommendation: BUY 0,9765 SL 0,971 TP1 0,985 TP2 0,9895…