2019-11-11 • Updated
Last week, Trump’s collaborators failed to garner enough support to a piece of legislation aimed at repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare act) even with a Republican-controlled Congress. It raised fears among the investors over Trump’s inability to enact pro-growth policies. The US 10-year bond yield hit its month low on Monday. The US equities experienced a massive selloff. In the Tokyo morning the investors’ anxiety over President Trump’s setback on Obamacare reform gave away; their confidence in Trump’s administration has returned.
The euro spiked to its highest point since November overnight (1.0905) as we got upbeat German Ifo Survey for March. The survey was the strongest since 2011; the headline Business Climate Index printed at 112.3. Overall, German economy grew1.9% last year that is stronger than 1.6% in 2015. ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet has recently noted that Eurozone deflation risk has almost gone. He also said that at the present moment it is premature to talk about a QE exit as ECB policymakers still didn’t achieved the expected effects from their loosening policies (some of the most indebted countries use QE for more spending rather that for shrinking their debt). The economic calendar for EUR/USD is light today with US Consumer Confidence and Fed’s speaker.
Aussie is still hovering around 0.7615. A pullback below 0.7600 towards the immediate support at 0.7555 will tell us about the restoration of the downtrend. On the upside, the nearest resistance can be found at around 0.7700. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, we heard Guy Debelle, the RBA Deputy Governor speaking of the FX code of conduct. There were no comments on the Australian economy, no mention of the RBA monetary measures.
NZD/USD is trading below the key resistance at 38.2% Fibo level (0.7050) traced from last year low. There is a chance of the uptrend restoration. A successful test of 0.7090 will tell us about the uptrend recovery. The economic calendar is empty.
GBP/USD spiked to 1.2617 overnight. In the Asian session, the British pound slid to 1.2555 as we approach the day X – a day of the formal trigger of Article 50 leading to the Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.
USD/CAD gained some additional points in today’s session. The quotes rose to 1.3386. BoC Governor Poloz is speaking tonight at Durham College. We don’t expect him dropping some subtle clues on the bank’s future monetary policies. So, the speech might be a non-event for USD/CAD.
In commodities, the relative weakness of the US dollar has helped oil prices to recover from their earlier losses (to $51.12). But there is a little scope for the uptrend recovery as concerns over the output cut deal are still present.
The belly is not filled with fair words, but we bet you’ve already had your breakfast
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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