2019-11-11 • Updated
Last week, Trump’s collaborators failed to garner enough support to a piece of legislation aimed at repealing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare act) even with a Republican-controlled Congress. It raised fears among the investors over Trump’s inability to enact pro-growth policies. The US 10-year bond yield hit its month low on Monday. The US equities experienced a massive selloff. In the Tokyo morning the investors’ anxiety over President Trump’s setback on Obamacare reform gave away; their confidence in Trump’s administration has returned.
The euro spiked to its highest point since November overnight (1.0905) as we got upbeat German Ifo Survey for March. The survey was the strongest since 2011; the headline Business Climate Index printed at 112.3. Overall, German economy grew1.9% last year that is stronger than 1.6% in 2015. ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet has recently noted that Eurozone deflation risk has almost gone. He also said that at the present moment it is premature to talk about a QE exit as ECB policymakers still didn’t achieved the expected effects from their loosening policies (some of the most indebted countries use QE for more spending rather that for shrinking their debt). The economic calendar for EUR/USD is light today with US Consumer Confidence and Fed’s speaker.
Aussie is still hovering around 0.7615. A pullback below 0.7600 towards the immediate support at 0.7555 will tell us about the restoration of the downtrend. On the upside, the nearest resistance can be found at around 0.7700. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, we heard Guy Debelle, the RBA Deputy Governor speaking of the FX code of conduct. There were no comments on the Australian economy, no mention of the RBA monetary measures.
NZD/USD is trading below the key resistance at 38.2% Fibo level (0.7050) traced from last year low. There is a chance of the uptrend restoration. A successful test of 0.7090 will tell us about the uptrend recovery. The economic calendar is empty.
GBP/USD spiked to 1.2617 overnight. In the Asian session, the British pound slid to 1.2555 as we approach the day X – a day of the formal trigger of Article 50 leading to the Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.
USD/CAD gained some additional points in today’s session. The quotes rose to 1.3386. BoC Governor Poloz is speaking tonight at Durham College. We don’t expect him dropping some subtle clues on the bank’s future monetary policies. So, the speech might be a non-event for USD/CAD.
In commodities, the relative weakness of the US dollar has helped oil prices to recover from their earlier losses (to $51.12). But there is a little scope for the uptrend recovery as concerns over the output cut deal are still present.
The belly is not filled with fair words, but we bet you’ve already had your breakfast
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Bitcoin's price remains stagnant despite the Fed's slightly less hawkish tone. In contrast, Bitcoin has outperformed other assets, doubling in price from $16K to nearly $38K this year. Improved fundamentals, including the resolution of Binance concerns...
Hey folks, it’s a wrap to yet another month in the 2023 calendar, and I’m guessing you know what that means - time for another episode in the “What To Trade” series. For December, I will be mapping out trade more cautiously as the market volatility often drops
Gold prices, reaching the highest since May 5, are consolidating as traders await the US PCE Price Index, a key inflation indicator. The upcoming data could impact the Fed's policy, influencing the demand for the US Dollar and providing direction for gold. The Greenback sees some repositioning, recovering modestly ahead of the data risk.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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