Why is oil's rally in danger?
Yes, oil prices are burning right now, and inflation is getting hotter along with it worldwide. However, the oil's bullish momentum is under threat.
Morning brief for May 31
2019-11-11 • Updated
The British pound fell sharply with a YouGov/Times poll showing the ruling Conservatives could lose 20 seats and their majority in parliament at the coming June election. GBP/USD immediately dropped to 1.2800 from circa 1.2860. At the present moment, the pair is hovering around 1.2808 level. The recent decline is lacking momentum, so the pound may move higher towards the resistances at 1.2845, 1.2890.
The dollar weakened against the safe-haven yen amid European political turmoil overnight. In Tokyo morning, we had preliminary industrial production print for April. The data indicated the best growth since April of 2011. For the yen, the following release wasn’t a reason to gain more strength. So, USD/JPY edged up t0 110.95. There is a soled resistance at 112.50 (the horizontal border of Kumo cloud on the daily timeframe).
The US Dollar Index Futures fell to 97.15 overnight. US Treasury yields missed some points Tuesday after the Fed Governor Lael Brainard said that she is content to hike in June, but if soft inflation data persist, she will reassess the appropriate path of monetary policy. The US PCE released yesterday was in line with market expectations. It didn’t show any lift in underlying pace of inflation despite the tightening of the labor market. There will more Fed officials speaking as we approach the FOMC’s June meeting. Robert Kaplan is due to speak in New York on Wednesday. As to the US economic data, pay closer attention to the Chicago PMI, pending home sales and Beige Book.
Aussie dipped lower in Tokyo session with missing results for local bank’s retail sales estimate (official data will be released tomorrow). Additional headwind for AUD – falling iron ore futures in China.
EUR/USD is trading lower at 1.1165 from yesterday’s high at 1.1205. Yesterday we got the release of German inflation data that fell short of market expectations. A report that ECB policymakers might upgrade their economic risk assessment at the upcoming meeting kept the possibility of a change in forward guidance despite Draghi’s dovish tone yesterday. As downward momentum clearly vanished, we still observe a weak undertone to the current price action and would continue to hold the same view unless the single currency rises above 1.1190.
USD/CAD was a bit lower in the session. Now it is around 1.3450. Today’s focus will on the Canadian GDP figures coming at 3:30 pm MT time.
Oil futures skipped a few points sliding down from $52.35 to $ 51.90 in the Asian session as raising output from Libya added to concerns about increasing US production that make OPEC-led output cut deal inefficient. According to Libya’s National Oil Corporation, the country production will rise to 800, 000 barrels. This would boost Libya’s exports and keep oil prices under pressure.
Similar
How Will Gas Supply Reduce Affect Eurozone?
What is happening? The Russian president's announcement that countries "unfriendly" to Moscow must pay for gas deliveries with rubles shows that he's willing to use energy as a weapon in the Ukraine war…
What Awaits Oil Markets If Russian Oil Disappeared?
A month after Russia invaded Ukraine, oil markets are still more volatile than ever, with little clarity on how the sanctions will affect Russian crude production as well as global oil demand.
Latest news
Last chance for bulls to exit the market. FBS explains the next two years for crypto
Crash of LUNA ecosystem and halving cycles. Glimpse into the future of the crypto market with FBS experts!
What To Trade On May 23 - 27?
Last week blew traders' minds! The US dollar dropped for the first time in seven weeks after Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday…
Can a recession be avoided?
The pandemic continues hurting economic activity in China, the war in Ukraine is hitting the entire European economy, and the Fed's efforts to control inflation threaten to trigger a recession.
