Reports released this week in the UK showed a mixed picture…
Morning brief for June 19
USD/JPY is trading a little bit higher this morning at 110.95 as we got a surprise trade deficit from Japan. The current move is a part of a consolidation phase. The pair will likely trade sideways between the wide range of 110.3 – 111.10.
Political turmoil in the US took another turn over the weekend. US President Donald Trump isn’t under investigation for obstruction by special counsel Robert Mueller, a member of the president’s legal team said, despite Trump’s repeated comments on Twitter that he is the target of a “witch hunt”. The NY Fed W. Dudley is due to speak later today. He might provide insight into whether the Fed is still on the track of raising its rate. Some analysts believe that he should sound very dovish and this should help the USD not to lose its ground.
The British pound is trading near 1.2770 in the light of a deliberate act of Islamophobia performed. In Monday’s morning, a van ploughed into worshippers leaving a London mosque killing at least one person and injuring some others. The Brexit negotiations are about to start at 11 am in Brussels with UK PM Theresa May’s government already on the backfoot. Without solid support for her earlier hard Brexit policies, she will have to soften them. It is not a one-day talk. So, any comments about the talks’ progress shouldn’t produce significant moves.
At the present moment, GBP/USD is trading at relatively muted manner. The prospects for further weakness has diminished but the slide towards 1.2730 is still possible. On the upside, there is a room for extension towards 1.2800/1.2830 levels.
EUR/USD slipped a few points and reached 1.1195. From here, the pair will likely trade sideways within the wide range of 1.1140 – 1.1265. President Emmanuel Macron won a solid majority in the second round of France’s parliamentary election held on Sunday, sweeping aside traditional parties and gaining support for his pro-business reforms.
The Australian dollar rose higher on Monday after the country’s central bank governor Philip Lowe said the country may achieve stronger growth in upcoming months. AUD/USD is trading against the level of 0.7615. The bullish phase is still intact. There is scope for further upsurge towards the resistances at 0.7670/0.7675.
USD/CAD ticked higher in the Asian session. The pair almost reached the level of 1.3220. In commodities, Brent futures dropped to $47.20 on concerns about a supply glut amid faltering demand.
We've got a pullback from 7/8 MM Level on the one hour chart, so wave [v] of C may have been formed. The price is declining in wave (iii) of [i].
The 34 MA has acted as support, so the price is consolidating. Meanwhile, the pair is likely going to test the closest resistance.
We've got a bearish "High Wave", which has strong confirmation. In this case, the price is likely going to decline.